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There is a lot of anger that pubs and restaurants have opened outside in England but not in Wales.
But to really understand the risks of reopening now we need to look at the data.
Many key indicators remain substantially higher now than they were in the summer.
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But to really understand the risks of reopening now we need to look at the data.
Many key indicators remain substantially higher now than they were in the summer.
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In the summer, Wales reopened hospitality on July 13.
Let's take a look at the Covid situation then compared to now.
Cases per 100,00:
July 13 = 4.4
Current rate = 17.5 (Cardiff over 30)
Positivity rate:
July 13 = 0.8%
Current rate = 2%
Let's take a look at the Covid situation then compared to now.
Cases per 100,00:
July 13 = 4.4
Current rate = 17.5 (Cardiff over 30)
Positivity rate:
July 13 = 0.8%
Current rate = 2%
So what we have is the two main indicators for Covid-19 in the community - positivity and cases per 100,000 - markedly higher than it was when Wales last reopened pubs outdoors.
This is part of the Welsh Government’s rationale for being hesitant with the reopening.
This is part of the Welsh Government’s rationale for being hesitant with the reopening.
However, there are other reasons to think that this time around we do not need to wait as long to reopen our beer gardens.
So what are the arguments that this time it is different?
So what are the arguments that this time it is different?
Well the first thing to mention is there are fewer people in hospital with Covid now than there were on July 13 last year.
The number of people in hospital with confirmed or suspected Covid is currently 369 whereas when pubs reopened outdoor last year there were 512.
The number of people in hospital with confirmed or suspected Covid is currently 369 whereas when pubs reopened outdoor last year there were 512.
There is also good news the amount of people actually being admitted. In the seven days leading up to July 13 there were an average of 62 people with suspected or confirmed Covid being admitted everyday.
In the seven days leading up to April 12 this was just 16.
In the seven days leading up to April 12 this was just 16.
And this brings us on to the vaccine. The First Minister has already indicated that the vaccine is cutting the link between cases and deaths.
Alongside the low numbers of cases in hospitals this adds weight to the calls to reopen earlier than last year.
Added to this there is immunity that some people have in Wales from already contracting the virus.
Added to this there is immunity that some people have in Wales from already contracting the virus.
It is also worth pointing out that in July last year the reopening of outdoor hospitality didn’t lead to a significant increase in cases as the virus only really got going again in late August when lots of travellers returned from overseas trips.
Is the Welsh Government right to wait?
There is no right or wrong answer, it is merely a judgement call.
There is no right or wrong answer, it is merely a judgement call.
On the one hand cases are far higher than they were last July.
If cases do increase there are likely to be more variants even if there is no increase in hospitalisations
If cases do increase there are likely to be more variants even if there is no increase in hospitalisations
It should also be remembered that a significant proportion of the population haven't even had one vaccine yet and most haven't had two.
On the other, the hospitality sector is on its knees and is desperate for some clarity and trade. There was also no rise in cases last time hospitality opened outside even without the vaccine.
