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A thread on the IIT report.
The @OPCW IIT, which can assign responsibility for chemical weapons attacks, has concluded there are reasonable grounds to believe that a helicopter of the Syrian Air Force attacked eastern Saraqib with chlorine on 4 Feb 2018. https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/2021/04/s-1943-2021%28e%29.pdf
The @OPCW IIT, which can assign responsibility for chemical weapons attacks, has concluded there are reasonable grounds to believe that a helicopter of the Syrian Air Force attacked eastern Saraqib with chlorine on 4 Feb 2018. https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/2021/04/s-1943-2021%28e%29.pdf
This attack, which was carried out under the control of the Tiger Forces, resulted in at least one cylinder of chlorine impacting the town, injuring 12 people due to the effects of chlorine gas.
The report also contains significant information relating to the 2018 Douma attack.
The report also contains significant information relating to the 2018 Douma attack.
The level of detail in the report is striking.
They have names of commanders, flight details of helicopters and even the callsign of the Mi-8/17 they believe carried out the attack (Alpha-253), thanks to a network of both human and technical plane spotters in Syria.
They have names of commanders, flight details of helicopters and even the callsign of the Mi-8/17 they believe carried out the attack (Alpha-253), thanks to a network of both human and technical plane spotters in Syria.
The IIT have also included a timeline of the attack in exacting detail using both witness accounts and meta-data from images and videos.
This same standard carries over to their examination of the munition used: a modified chlorine cylinder equipped with a cradle, fins and wheels.
This munition is, of course, the same design used 250 km and several frontlines away in Douma a few weeks later.
This munition is, of course, the same design used 250 km and several frontlines away in Douma a few weeks later.
The IIT even included an example of the chain of custody of one of these fragments, showing it recovered at the scene, packed at the scene, handed over to the FFM and then examined in its lab.
One interesting detail is the identification of Sarin-related compounds, which the IIT made no firm conclusion about.
One possibility they consider, amongst others, is that this could be due to a previous Sarin attack in the area in 2013.
One possibility they consider, amongst others, is that this could be due to a previous Sarin attack in the area in 2013.
That this is a feasible possibility is pretty shocking.
Rebel-held areas of Syria have been hit by so many chemical attacks that it is a realistic possibility chemical markers from previous attacks get mixed up in new samples.
Rebel-held areas of Syria have been hit by so many chemical attacks that it is a realistic possibility chemical markers from previous attacks get mixed up in new samples.
There’s also a very interesting section on the chemistry of this attack. The IIT explicitly tested the scenario that the chemical results were “staged” using cleaning chemicals - the scenario the OPCW leaker Whelan implied to undermine the FFM Douma report.
The IIT actually obtained cleaning products from Syria, identified six chemical markers from them and tested the Saraqib samples for them.
The OPCW and designated labs found no traces of these markers. In short, this shows the attack wasn’t “staged” in this way.
The OPCW and designated labs found no traces of these markers. In short, this shows the attack wasn’t “staged” in this way.
I have little doubt the same method will be applied to the Douma attack. If the result is the same, then the primary complaint about the Douma FFM report (which we have previously shown to be hugely overstated) will be demonstrated to have been baseless. https://www.bellingcat.com/news/mena/2020/01/15/the-opcw-douma-leaks-part-1-we-need-to-talk-about-alex/
Finally the association of the Tiger Forces & chemical weapons, and so by extension its commander Suhail al-Hassan, is highlighted throughout the piece.
I had quite a bit of fun pinning down al-Hassan likely watching a CW attack in al-Lataminah in 2017. https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2020/04/15/did-these-syrian-generals-watch-a-chemical-attack-on-a-hospital/
I had quite a bit of fun pinning down al-Hassan likely watching a CW attack in al-Lataminah in 2017. https://www.bellingcat.com/news/2020/04/15/did-these-syrian-generals-watch-a-chemical-attack-on-a-hospital/
One final point: the IIT’s conclusion of “reasonable grounds” is not some kind of “cowardly qualifier” as one particular dimwit has suggested.
It’s literally what the IIT is mandated to check for.
https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/2019/07/ec91s03%28e%29.pdf
It’s literally what the IIT is mandated to check for.
https://www.opcw.org/sites/default/files/documents/2019/07/ec91s03%28e%29.pdf
Although the IIT stresses it’s not a judicial body, “reasonable grounds” is the evidentiary requirement given for arresting someone by the ICC and other jurisdictions.
Article 58 here:
https://www.icc-cpi.int/resource-library/documents/rs-eng.pdf
Article 58 here:
https://www.icc-cpi.int/resource-library/documents/rs-eng.pdf
I must stress: the evidence for the use of chemical weapons in Syria is so abundant and specific as to be overwhelming. These are incredibly well documented attacks.
This IIT report is a great example of how much evidence there is for simply one attack - there are many others.
This IIT report is a great example of how much evidence there is for simply one attack - there are many others.
Attempts to undermine these investigations are driven by nation states, groups of conspiracy theorists & bad faith actors. The best inoculation against this, especially for policy makers who may be taken in by such bad-faith actors, is to read & understand these reports in full.
The reports are long, but the details they contain are incredibly important, especially now those bad-faith actors are attempting to undermine the international consensus against the use of chemical weapons that has stood for so long.
This subject is not only about the use of chemical weapons by a dictator intent on destroying his own people, but also about the international consensus against chemical weapons and the nature of objective truth itself.
Read the reports. Listen to the witnesses. End.
Read the reports. Listen to the witnesses. End.
