Decent-sized rebound in EU exports in Feb vs Jan, but still below Feb 2020.

While offering my usual health warning that @NEEChamberJack and @NEEChamberTomK will provide better analysis...here's my take...

Stockpiling and general avoidance of trade pushed Jan figs very low (1/x) https://twitter.com/ONS/status/1381852289175068672

So, a Feb rebound is to be expected, but we're still seeing this play out - there are easements which will phase out, there are supply chains adjusting - and so we won't know for a few months yet what's temporary and what's permanent shift.

(2/x)

That we've had a rebound of that size is tribute to the ability of businesses to get their heads around the changes, and to those (like my Chamber network International Trade colleagues) supporting them to do so.

But be wary of the differences for large vs small exporter.

(3/x)

i.e. larger exporters have the resources to adjust, and we could end up seeing overall volumes and value recovering well, while still losing huge numbers of SME exporters who decide it's too hard to be worth their while.

They obviously then never grow into big exporters.

(4/x)

Another point @NEEChamberJack has just made to me is that February will have seen unwinding of order backlogs - exports which people knew were going to be happening, and would usually have happened in January, but which were held back in an effort to let the dust settle.

(5/x)

The weaker rebound for imports is a concern too - is it EU producers saying "Nah, we won't sell to the UK now" because of perceived difficulty? Is it actual difficulty?

It's a problem for UK producers importing materials; it's a problem for transport and logistics.

(6/x)

It's also a problem for consumers here as prices will inevitably rise and choice of products will fall.

Anyway, check out @NEEChamberTomK
and @NEEChamberJack for more (better) analysis every day, instead of my once-a-month foray into trade.

(7/x)