“The position of the UK Gov’t is that there is no lawful, democratic path to Scottish independence for an unspecified number of decades”.

This will change Union from one based on consent to one that survives only by force of law.

Me in @thetimesscot 1/6 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/denying-a-referendum-will-change-the-union-c3b6bsk2g">https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/d...
Accompanying news story https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">.

Of course a referendum risks the Union itself. But denying one that people have voted for would change the Union fundamentally, ending the long era of voluntary partnership.

The Union would just be a legal construct 2/6 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/johnsons-refusal-to-grant-referendum-will-corrode-the-union-qs6wdnjmc">https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/j...
On the other hand, nationalists cannot again peddle the 2014 fantasy that independence means continuity in most things.

It would be highly disruptive with huge challenges, especially on the fiscal position.

Their task is to convince people the rewards would be worth it 4/6
Nor is federalism a viable middle way https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">. & the case for it misses 2 points.

1. England has abandoned its historic restraint as the senior partner in the Union, esp during Brexit process

2. By electing huge numbers of SNP MPs, Scotland has largely opted out of UK politics
5/6 https://twitter.com/ciaranmartinoxf/status/1355942531188609030">https://twitter.com/ciaranmar...
For the launch of the longer paper on this based on my experience helping to negotiate the terms of the 2014 referendum see https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="👇" title="Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten" aria-label="Emoji: Rückhand Zeigefinger nach unten">

Will be joined by leading historian Sir Tom Devine and Dean @NgaireWoods @BlavatnikSchool

Paper will be online this evening. https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/events/scotland-and-independence-referendums-short-and-long-term-reflections">https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/events/sc...
You can follow @ciaranmartinoxf.
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