This thread examines Jordan-era Bulls' performance in the playoffs relative to their regular-season performance.

This is a *TEAM* stat.

A better *INDIVIDUAL* stat is examining how a star's teammates actually played in POs.

Here's 4 *TEAMMATES in POs* comparisons using WS/48:

Thread examining Jordan-era Bulls' relative playoff performance.

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This thread:

Takes Bulls regular-season SRS.

Compares this RS SRS to RS SRS of each PO opponent.

Uses SRS difference between teams and Pythagorean theory to calculate Bulls' EXPECTED WINS in each playoff series.

Compares Bulls' EXPECTED WINS vs. ACTUAL WINS in playoffs.

For example:

In Jordan's first PO series, 1985 vs. Bucks, Bulls had -0.50 SRS & Bucks had 6.69 SRS.

SRS difference was -7.19. Teams with -7.19 SRS win % is .281 on average.

So in 4 games, Bulls should win 1.1 games. In fact, Bulls won 1. So Bulls -0.1 WINS BELOW EXPECTED.

Jordan's Bulls won a lot in the POs. But they also had some of the best regular-season teams ever, too.

So relative to regular season, did the Bulls overperform or underperform in playoffs?

In 179 games in 37 PO series that MJ played, the Bulls OVERPERFORMED by 19.5 games.

20 series: Bulls overperformed in POs vs. regular season.
13 series: Bulls performed as expected in POs.
4 series: Bulls underperformed.

How do Jordan's Bulls compare to Russell's Celtics and Wilt's teams?

MJ, Bill, Wilt:
179, 165, 160 (PO Games)
19.5, 6.8, 6.7 (PO Wins above expected)

MJ, Bill, Wilt:
37, 29, 29 (PO Series)
20, 13, 12 (Overperformed in PO series)
13, 8, 11 (As Expected)
4, 8, 6 (Under)

Let's look closely at Jordan's Bulls in the POs.

People forget that early in his career, Jordan was seen as a "selfish, ball-hog loser," who couldn't beat Bird's Celtics or Isiah's Pistons.

Bulls PO record 1985-88:
1-4 in PO series
5-15 in PO games

But did Bulls underperform?

1985:
Bulls 38-44, -0.50 SRS
Bucks 59-23, 6.69
Expected wins: 1.1
Wins: 1
-0.1 = AS EXPECTED

1986:
Bulls 30-52 -3.12 SRS
Celtics 67-15, 9.06
Exp W: 0.49
Actual: 0
-0.49 = AS EXPECTED (barely)

1987:
Bulls 40-42, 1.26 SRS
Celtics 59-23, 6.57
Exp: 1.1 vs. 0
-1.1 = BELOW EXPECTED

1988: Bulls: 3.76 SRS

Cavs: 1.28 SRS
Bulls expected wins: 2.9 in 5 games.
Actual wins: 3
+0.1 = AS EXPECTED range

Pistons: 5.46 SRS
Bulls expected wins: 2.2 in 5 games.
Actual wins: 1
-1.2 = BELOW EXPECTED

MJ's Bull's first 20 PO games, 1985-88:
5-15 record
-2.7 wins BELOW expected

PO Series:
1-4
0x overperformed
3x performed as expected
2x underperformed

Not very good so far. But that all changes starting 1989.

1989: Bulls overperform vs. Cavs & Knicks:
+1.4, +1.3 more wins than expected!
Beat 2 teams with better RS records and better RS SRS.
Cavs SRS was 5.82 better than Bulls!

Vs. Pistons
Expected: 2.2 wins in 6 games
Actual 2
-0.2: within "AS EXPECTED" range (-0.5 to +0.5)

1990: Bulls: 2.74 SRS
+0.54 wins vs. Bucks (-1.06 SRS)
+1.7 wins vs. 76ers (4.23 SRS, 1.49 higher than Bulls)

+0.1 wins vs. Pistons (5.41 SRS, 2.67 higher)
In 7 games vs. Pistons, Bulls expected to win 2.9; actually won 3.

1991: Bulls 8.57 SRS
+0.8 vs. Knicks (OVERperformed)
+0.3 vs. 76ers (EXPECTED)
+1.3 vs. Pistons (OVER)
+1.2 vs. Lakers (OVER)

1992: Bulls 67-15, 10.07
+0.48 vs. Heat (EXPECTED)
-0.8 vs. Knicks, took Bulls to 7 (Bulls expected in 6)
+0.1 vs. Cavs (EXPECTED)
+0.4 vs. Blazers (EXP)

1993: 57-25, 6.19
+1.0 vs. Hawks (OVER)
+2.0 vs. Cavs, who had higher SRS than Bulls (OVER)
+0.9 vs. Knicks (5.87 SRS) (OVER)
+1.0 vs. Suns, with higher SRS than Bulls (OVER)

1994: Without MJ: 2.87 SRS
+1.6 vs. Cavs, with higher SRS (OVER)
+0.3 vs. Knicks, with higher SRS (EXP)

1995:
Bulls 47-35, 4.32 SRS
Without MJ: 34-31 (43-39 pace), 4.29 point diff
With MJ: 13-4 (63-19 pace), 6.88 point diff

Based on 4.32 SRS:
+0.8 vs. Hornets (OVER)
-0.6 vs Magic (UNDER)

Based on 6.88:
-0.1 vs. Hornet (EXPECTED)
-1.1 vs. Magic (UNDER)

1996:
+0.7 vs. Heat (OVER)
+0.2 vs. Knicks (EXPECTED)
+1.3 vs. Magic (OVER)
+0.2 vs. Sonics (EXP)

1997:
+0.8 vs. Bullets (OVER)
+0.7 vs. Hawks (OVER)
+0.7 vs. Heat (OVER)
+0.49 vs. Jazz (EXPECTED)

1998:
+1.0 vs. Nets (OVER)
+1.4Hornets (OVER)
+0.3Pacers(EXP)
+0.7Jazz(OVER)

Bulls, 1989-98
34 PO series
30-4 series record
21 OVERperformed
11 as Expected
2 UNDER

Bulls with MJ, 1989-98:
32 PO series
29-3 series record
20 OVERperformed
10 as Expected
2 UNDER

Bulls had terrific RS records & SRS, 1991-98, and still tended to win MORE than expected in PO!

Reminder: Jordan's Bulls compared to Russell's Celtics and Wilt's teams:

MJ, Bill, Wilt:
179, 165, 160 (PO Games)
19.5, 6.8, 6.7 (PO Wins above expected)

MJ, Bill, Wilt:
37, 29, 29 (PO Series)
20, 13, 12 (Overperformed in PO series)
13, 8, 11 (As Expected)
4, 8, 6 (Under)