This is a very serious allegation. Vaccines in Ontario are a desperately needed *scarce resource* that are unevenly distributed. That’s already a conflict risk. Even the slightest *perception* of political partisanship makes things very volatile. /A Security Prof Thread https://twitter.com/CBCQueensPark/status/1381571913512804361

The scholarship shows that resource scarcity can provoke & inflame conflict. Perceptions of unfairness also activate protest. While provincial govts don’t think about civil strife often, they should tread carefully here. /1

Plenty of Ontarians have lost lives, jobs, health & homes this past year. These factors already put societies at risk of conflict. As docile as you may think our province is, it dangerous to add a partisanship bias perception to this mix. /2

Most Canadians are not used to life-and-death scarcity issues. These conditions bring out ugly aspects of the human experience. Fear. Competition. Survival. It is hard to be patient & principled under these conditions. /3

Once you add perceptions of systemic unfairness to the equation, it activates inter-group competition and anger. There is nothing like a “justice motive” to make people throw rational calculus out the window & turn on others. /4

Our leaders must distribute this desperately needed scarce resource in a fair way that follows clear rules. This is not just about equity ethics. It’s about protecting the societal cohesion that keeps us from tearing each other apart. /5

Even a hint that politicians are gaming the system & privileging favourites will cause a collapse in confidence in the system. Having seen many societies that have fallen into this trap, absolutely nothing is worth that. /6

Journalists also have a tremendous responsibility here. They must be 100% sure that these allegations are true before publishing them. Otherwise, these stories risk inflaming inter-group societal conflict for a cheap headline. Be sure. Be right. /7

Citizens also have responsibilities. This means not panicking or rule-breaking because you perceive the leadership as biased or unfair. That behaviour is contagious and leads to escalating competition and conflict. /8

We all know folks desperately trying to get ahead of the vaccine cue. Shrouded by fear, competition, and a justice motive, that might *feel* like the right thing to do. It’s not. And again, it’s socially contagious behaviour. /9

Ontarians may not think our current vaccine scarcity issues are like other life-and-death scarcity issues in “those places” around the world. But having seen both, I see the parallels. We are just as fearfully human as anyone else in the world. Humility is wise. /10

If you haven’t experienced a life-and-death scarcity issue before, that means you never had to build the spiritual muscles needed to be patient & principled under these conditions. And adversity reveals the weaknesses in our character & our opportunity to improve it. /11

This is therefore a critical moment. First, the province must ruthlessly adhere to its own rules & principles. If there is an inequity on the postal codes, fix it immediately. Be fully transparent in how the govt is implementing the rules. /12

Second, our journalists must hold govt accountable on policy, but also be mindful of the social powder keg we are sitting on. This is not a normal social context. Provocation will provoke. There’s a dual responsibility here. /13

As citizens, we must hold onto the last drops of our inner strength a little longer. Yes, it’s hard. Many folks I respect are now at their wits end. Who isn’t? But spewing anger & misinformation (on all political sides) won’t save us. /14

Managing a life-or-death scarce resource is an incredibly fraught ordeal. Ontarians are fortunate to be promised a vaccine in the near future. But today, we are dealing with the widespread social & psychological effects of this scarcity. /15

Like all humans who face these conditions (& often in worse ways), this time will reveal hidden parts of ourselves. For that reason alone, it is worth taking a pause from the noise & looking inward. Because we are, right now, all co-creating this world. /x