Read on Twitter
Here it is - your $CMLF Sema4 DDGenomics play
AI platform
Data like $PLTR
Drug discovery
Healthcare 
World Class CEO
$190MM revenue in 2020A high quality growth company with massive tailwinds, going the SPAC route to accelerate its vision. Lets go!
Low risk - long term reward
Attractive valuation: ~$3B (low compared to competition)Low debt, high cashP/S: ~15X fair for a high growth companyNo near term catalysts, just pure execution on visionFlywheel machine (more data = more 
)
Business ModelSema4 has a genomics testing solution for patients, which it leverages to build a repository of real world patient data
They then monetise this database to Pharma & healthcare systems
Would Pharma & healthcare pay for this service
Absolutely
A brief history lessonIn 2016, the Congress passed the Cures Act to accelerate medical product development
The Act included a provision for the FDA to create a Real World Evidence (RWE) framework to guide developers in using Real World Data (RWD) for regulatory approval
RWD 
RWE
Real World Data (RWD) are the data relating to patient health status or the delivery of health care routinely collected from a variety of sources
Real World Evidence (RWE) is clinical evidence regarding the usage of medical product derived from analysis of RWD
RWEReal World Data (RWD) are the data relating to patient health status or the delivery of health care routinely collected from a variety of sourcesReal World Evidence (RWE) is clinical evidence regarding the usage of medical product derived from analysis of RWD
How does this relate to Sema4? Hang in there, it will make sense
Pharma companies see massive value in RWE/RWD
Study by Deloitte surveying pharma reveals:
94% believe RWE will be very important by 2022
Almost all companies expect to increase external partnerships for RWD
Pharma companies see massive value in RWE/RWD
Study by Deloitte surveying pharma reveals:
94% believe RWE will be very important by 2022Almost all companies expect to increase external partnerships for RWD
Unprecedented tailwinds
All Pharma companies now believe RWD is important 
The FDA is now pushing for the use of RWD
RWE is derived from analysing RWD
Pharmas are constantly searching for high quality data sourcesWho has the best clinical data?
Enter Sema4
How much Real World Data does Sema4 have?10+ million patient records5 million records w/ longitudinal clinical data 300K patient genomic data.. and growing
Information stored & processed inside its Centrellis engine which uses machine learning to derive insights
Flywheel alertSema4 collects clinical data from patients & other sources
..the data is fed into the Centrellis engine which generates insights for client use in trials, models
..which then creates enhanced data that is fed back into Centrellis
we like a good flywheel
This is where it gets fun..
Combine the demand for Real World Data with Centrellis and you get a business that compounds data like Buffet compounds his investments
The more customers use Sema4, the better the data will be for future customers and the wheel keeps spinning
Combine the demand for Real World Data with Centrellis and you get a business that compounds data like Buffet compounds his investments
The more customers use Sema4, the better the data will be for future customers and the wheel keeps spinning
I see two main customers: health systems & Pharma companies
For health systems, the value proposition is simple: offer actionable insights at every stage of the patient journey
The value Sema4 provides is the ability to personalise insights which could help identify risks
For health systems, the value proposition is simple: offer actionable insights at every stage of the patient journey
The value Sema4 provides is the ability to personalise insights which could help identify risks
For Pharma companies, Sema4 has a smorgasbord of solutions.
In general, Sema4 adds value to Pharma's who need to use its intelligence to:
De-risk drug development
Reduce developmental costs
Improve patient selectivity
Increase speed to market
and so on..
In general, Sema4 adds value to Pharma's who need to use its intelligence to:
De-risk drug developmentReduce developmental costsImprove patient selectivityIncrease speed to marketand so on..
Sema4's growth strategyThe base: revenue from genomics testing
The core: providing data-driven insights to improve the outcomes for Pharma & health systems
The aspiration: potentially a consumer play that matches patients to healthcare solutions and services (fascinating)
The numbers2020 rev: 190M 2021 exp rev: 265M (38% increase)2020 gross margin: 22% (healthy)2021 exp grosss margin: 32%To achieve this, $CMLF needs to expand into other markets outside of women's health and increase the number/size of partnerships. Watch closely
What is Sema4's TAMThis is a tricky one to size (in a good way), Sema4 is pulling so many things together in an unprecedented way that it is difficult to see their ceiling
To use their own sizing: they estimate a $643B total addressable market
Their valuation is ~$3B
Where does their valuation stand amongst competitors?
$NVTA:$7.3B
$NTRA: $8.9B
$GH: $15.5B
$EXAS: $21B
$ADPT: $5.5B
$CMLF: $3B
I think its only crime is that it is underreported and it just missed the post Covid-19 Genomics mini bull run. There is a fair deal to be had here
$NVTA:$7.3B
$NTRA: $8.9B
$GH: $15.5B
$EXAS: $21B
$ADPT: $5.5B
$CMLF: $3B
I think its only crime is that it is underreported and it just missed the post Covid-19 Genomics mini bull run. There is a fair deal to be had here
LeadershipIt would be remiss of me not to mention the world class CEO: Eric Schadt Ph.D.
Dean for Precision Medicine at Mount Sinai
Fr Head of Genomics, Merck
Fr CSO $PACB
Founder at Sage Bionetworks
Chief Scientist at Rosetta Inpharmatics
You want him on your team
As usual, I will lay out the main risks
Sema4's vision is admittedly messy and they need to hone in on key areas to win clientsGrowth will slow if they are unable to expand past Women's HealthNo catalysts, just execution - if not stellar, investors will not buy
Conclusion$CMLF is an attractive, longer term play built on:
Powerful FDA, Pharma RWD tailwindsA compounding flywheel of a data platformStrong value for health systems and PharmaFair valuation especially amongst competitorsLeadership and investment pedigree
If you enjoyed this $CMLF DD, follow along:
@RiskRewardCap
I also think you'd like this DD:
@AnthonyOhayon
@NatHarooni
@LuoshengPeng
@SatoshiAlien
@BackpackerFI
@cperruna
@plantmath1
@RiskRewardCap
I also think you'd like this DD:
@AnthonyOhayon
@NatHarooni
@LuoshengPeng
@SatoshiAlien
@BackpackerFI
@cperruna
@plantmath1
Use this to retweet the whole DD chain or simply to get back to the start! https://twitter.com/RiskRewardCap/status/1381674355587915777
