1/25

Rarely do I share price projections in crypto because I& #39;m a product style investor and the market doesn& #39;t have a lot of steady comparables.

But, I& #39;m making an exception, since I think its clear $FTT is grossly under valued vs $COIN and has a potential 18x to $1k~ ahead.
2/25

First and foremost, Coinbase $COIN is currently trading at an implied valuation of just shy of $140B based on @FTX_Official& #39;s $CBSE listing, and I think it& #39;s reasonable to expect it could inch higher in the public market. (Pic from The Block. You should subscribe.)
3/25

Coinbase shows a quarterly EBITDA in the $1.1B range, and a net income of around $800M.

Putting that out to the the annual rate, over its valuation, we& #39;re looking at a roughly 45x earnings multiple.
5/25

Thanks to @SBF_Alameda& #39;s tweet here: https://twitter.com/SBF_Alameda/status/1379530849025060867

We">https://twitter.com/SBF_Alame... have a rough range of where FTX falls in line with Coinbase on comparables.

Along with some data scraping and estimates, I was able to build a decent model.
6/25

What may surprise you, is that FTX wins out on top line volume, even when we don& #39;t account for their other properties.

They achieve this revenue with significantly lower users as well.
7/25

There overall revenue from that volume is a about 6.67x lower than Coinbase though, driven by the fact that their average take-rate (fee) is 0.02% vs Coinbase& #39;s blended take fee averaging out to 0.54%
8/25

This means that when it comes to net earnings there is a 5.88x delta between the two.

Which isn& #39;t bad considering the smaller footprint, market exposure and overhead for FTX.
9/25

You& #39;ll also notice that while we don& #39;t know FTX& #39;s specific user growth numbers, we& #39;re told it did beat the growth numbers for Coinbase both on the quarter and the annual, and those numbers we do know, and they are strong.
10/25

Now we need to account for some unit economic flow. $FTT has 1/3rd of all profits from FTX flow into it, and a nebulous 10% of all other proceeds which I didn& #39;t account for as it was hard to parse what that would be.
11/25

Coinbase has a 42.5% net margin so we& #39;re using that as value capture when thinking about the stock. But, I think its fair to say that multiple isn& #39;t exactly the same strength of value capture.
12/25

We also had to specifically account for two things which aren& #39;t covered well in financial models.

$FTT buy and burn, and recurring $SRM airdrop to $FTT holders.

To do this I factored these in as rebates on the unit cost.
13/25

Once we do that, we can see that across every sliceable metric per unit and per cost, FTX is the far better financial return, value capture and marketshare capture.
14/25

Despite this, Coinbase& #39;s implied trading is at a 45.62x P/E multiple, where as $FTT is at a 12x (which is crazy low for any asset these days. 30x is often considered the floor for boring low growth stocks)
15/25

If $FTT had the same multiple as Coinbase then it& #39;d be trading at $193 per $FTT today.

But there are some advantages we have to account for with Coinbase.
16/25

First it has some brand effect, which we can also call the Robinhood effect. Meaning retail investors familiar with cool modern brands are over buying them compared to value. I applied a 15% deduction to account for this.
17/25

$FTT also isn& #39;t purchasable in the US, or yet storable in retirement savings accounts and tax free accounts like $COIN will be, so I deducted 18% and 15% respectively for those.
18/25

That gives us a FMV **TODAY** of $100.83, a 2x from its current price.
19/25

But there was a major change this year, where @FTX_Official bought out @blockfolio and integrated @PayPal and @circlepay on @solana for easy onboarding in hundreds of countries.

These users are more like Coinbase users and likely to pay a higher multiple.
20/25

If the average fee blended rate on FTX shifted from 0.02% to 0.087% (which is roughly what I estimate @Binance& #39;s avg fee is, and is still 6.2x lower than Coinbase& #39;s)

Then I think with very conservative growth (>20%) we& #39;d be looking around $440~ per $FTT after 3-years
21/25

If they manage to resolve the brand impact, non-us, non-tax free account penalties, increase their average fee with mainstream users, and keep growing (at a slowing rate of 50% off previous years growth each year), then 3 years we& #39;d be in the $935~ per $FTT range.
22/25

To sanity check that number, assume $FTT has burned 10M this year and continues to burn 50% less each year (I think they& #39;ll burn more)

With no dilution and $935, that& #39;d put the mcap at $100B, still 33% less than $COIN& #39;s cap.
23/25

If they diluted the full company reserve, it& #39;d be a mcap of $298B, at the 45x multiple that means they& #39;d need an earnings of $6.6B. Given the 82% margin, that& #39;d be a revenue of $8B.

If their fee hits the 0.087% threshold then they& #39;d need $9T in trade volume.
24/25

$9T in trade volume sounds crazy. Until you remember than @binance is on pace to do about $39T in trade volume in the forward looking year.
25/25

Meaning if @FTX_Official can get 23% of the volume of Binance over the next 3 years, and improve their fee through Blockfolio to still be one of the cheapest in the industry, then nearly $1000~ $FTT is possible with full dilution in 3 years, but $500+ $FTT is conservative.
Standard disclaimer: Not financial advice. I& #39;m super bias and own tons of FTT, and this market is crazy and irrational so numbers don& #39;t always reflect reality.
PS - Incase individuals are unfamiliar with these markets $COIN is the projected Coinbase listing stock on classic exchanges, not a token.

$FTT is an ERC20 token, it is not a stock by the same ticker symbol.
You can follow @adamscochran.
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