Why I'm Selling My Late 1st Round Rookie Picks and You Should Too: A THREAD

Now don't get me wrong the top 8 picks(in no order) in SF/TE Prem Are All ROCK SOLID:
-T Law
-Justin Fields
-Zach Wilson
-Trey Lance
-Najee Harris
-Travis Etienne
-Ja'Marr Chase
-Kyle Pitts

...Then there's a cliff

What Happened? Pro Days
-Rashod Bateman was supposed to be 6'2 210. He came in at 6'0 190
-These teams are pumping kids numbers like they're running their Tinder accounts
-A LOT of WRs in that 1.09-1.12 range came in undersized or frail

Why Do We Want BIG Recievers?
-Alphas Eat First(credit @DFBeanCounter)
-Definition: 5'11+, 195+ ibs, 26+ BMI
-These WRs have the most upside

Lets Define Upside:
-The average Top 6 WR in 2020 scored 20.4 PPR PPG, Tyler Lockett(WR12) scored 16.6.
-This 3.8 point gap is equal to the distance between Lockett(WR12) and Boyd(WR37)
-You are gaining no edge from WRs12-36

SIDE NOTE:
I'm starting to view WR in a similar light as TE. I care much more about a Top 6 finish than a Top 12.

Everything past that is much more replaceable.

Anyways...Onward

Since 2013 there has been 14 WRs who have hit the 20 PPG Threshold:

Josh Gordon
Deandre Hopkins
Davante Adams
Julio Jones
Michael Thomas
Steffon Diggs
Calvin Johnson
OBJ
Demaryious Thomas
Jordy Nelson
Brandon Marshall
Keenan Allen
Tyreek Hill
Antonio Brown

Antonio Brown and Tyreek Hill are the only WRs on this list that do not meet the criteria of alpha receiver.
-These are the outliers of all outliers
-Day 3 picks -Small Schools
-Undersized
-These both fit the profile of a late round dart throw in a rookie draft

DISCLAIMER: WE WANT OUTLIERS... Just not at a 1st round rookie price. These guys were probably waiver pickups or late round fliers in rookie drafts. I'm much more willing to bet on outliers in the later rounds of rookie drafts

"Ok but 20 PPG is just an arbitrary number"

Then let's look at it this way. We want WRs to acrue value in Dynasty right?
-Of the Top 20 WRs per DLF ADP 85% hit the alpha thresholds
-So generally speaking: alphas are more likely to score more points and gain value in Dynasty

Applying This to 2021 Rookie Drafts
-Theres a lot of undersized beta WRs that don't offer 20 PPG upside
-We don't want to spend late 1sts on guys like Jamison Crowder and Robby Anderson when they can be bought for 3rd rounders

This class is filled with betas at the top. 7/10 of the top rookie WRs per @DLFootball ADP are betas. Last year this number was only 3/10. In 2020 you could swing for alpha upside on guys like Higgins, Shenault, J Jefferson, and Aiyuk. This year doesn't offer the same upside.

"But Ron You DONT HAVE TO DRAFT A WR"
-At QB Mac Jones is fine but his limited rushing upside makes his best case scenario Kirk Cousins
-Javonte Williams tested as a plodder

In the 1st Round of Rookie Drafts Im Targeting Alpha WRs, Athletic Pass Catching RBs, and Konami QBs

Once Theyre gone...

BONUS: TRADE TARGETS FOR LATE 1sts:
-Courtland Sutton
-Brandon Aiyuk
-Late 1st+Mims/Pittman/Reagor/Etc FOR Tee Higgins
-Trade up into the Top 7
-Grab Woods/Kupp/Julio+22 1st or 23 1st