1// Thread on flat vs spin on clay

Actually think Medvedev's a bit underrated on clay (even by himself lol) but there are reasons why flatter hitters can have it tougher. Serve impact aside, the trajectory of their groundstrokes get riskier the further back in the court they are
2/ While taking an aggressive position inside the court, both flatter and spinnier hitters work fine (flatter hitters arguably work even better). Both trajectories have a good chance at clearing the net and the balls landing before the baseline.
3/ But when pushed further back in the court, flatter hitters in theory have less margin to work with from deeper positions. If they hit the same sort of shape & power (as from inside the court) from further back they'll end up in the net...
4/ ...and if the flatter hitter compensates by hitting bigger or by giving the ball a bit more loft to clear the net, they then have an increased chance (relative to a high topspin player) to hit the ball out.
5/ All shots experience drag through the air, but the Magnus Effect also creates a downward force on topspin shots, meaning those who hit w greater topspin can hit hard & high while relying on greater downward force (relative to flat hitters) on the ball to drop it in the court
6/ The trajectory factor isn't the only disadvantage for flatter hitters on clay. The impact their ball has when it bounces also doesn't have the same skidding effect on a clay court as it would on grass or hard thanks to greater friction and higher bounce on the red stuff.
7/ Medvedev = interesting because he manages to hit flat from deep positions on hard courts v consistently. But he's helped by 1. height (higher the contact point, safer the trajectory, as below) 2. how penetrating his shots are when bouncing on quicker surfaces. Less so on clay
8/ The above is all a bit simplistic, & there are of course exceptions (e.g Garin, a great clay courter, hits pretty flat) & many additional factors in play during matches. But being able to hit high margin offence is consistently a vital part of modern tennis, especially on clay
9/ Many of the flatter hitters do tend to have their worst win rate on clay: Kukushkin, Medvedev, Evans, De Minaur, Hurkacz etc

And it has got me wondering about optimal court positioning for flatter hitters on clay.

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