I think one of the most common misconceptions with xG totals is that a total of 4xG means the player or team “deserved to” or “should have” scored four goals, when in reality it just means that scoring four goals was the MOST LIKELY outcome from those shots.

For example, say a team takes 40 shots each worth 0.1xG for a total of 4xG. Scoring four goals from those shots is the most likely outcome, but the chance of scoring four goals is only around 20%

There’s a ~37% chance they’ll score more than that, and a ~43% chance they’ll score less: it’s a distribution. I know most of you know that already, but a lot of people who’s only exposure to it is though certain accounts who’s entire brand is “wow look, goals =/= xG!” won’t