A few quick thoughts on the sabotage effort that knocked out power to Iran’s main enrichment facility, with the caveat that we should be careful about drawing firm conclusions given the unknowns and incentives by multiple sides to distort the truth. 1/

What’s the impact on Iran’s program? Incredibly hard to say. Two intel officially in NYT report claim 9+ months before Iran can bring power back online (a major setback). Iranian officials are claiming little damage to centrifuges. My advice: Let’s wait for more info. 2/

What’s the impact on nuclear talks? In the short term, not good. This will make it harder for Iran to compromise in Vienna. Iran doesn’t like to appear that it is negotiating from a weakened position or under pressure. The longer term impact is harder to guess. 3/

Assuming it’s Israel - why did they do this now? Probably multiple reasons. It delays the program. Potentially spoils talks. And it signals to Iran that its adversaries can still “reach out and touch” its nuclear program whenever they feel like it. 4/

Was the US involved? If not involved, did Israel warn them? On the former - that’s unlikely, given the strong chance this makes negotiations back to the deal—the US preferred path—harder. The US probably would exhaust the diplomatic path before reverting to pressure tactics. 5/

Was the US informed ahead of time? Hard to say. Odds are good that it received some type of heads up, but unclear whether that came weeks, days, or hours in advance. Israel would have no doubt argued that by delaying Iran’s program, the operation actually gives the US leverage.6/

If the US wasn’t given a warning ahead of time, and the Israelis executed the operation knowing Sec Austin would be in Israel at the same time, then...man. That would be a low blow to your ally, and a very aggressive, in your face move by the Israelis. 7/

In any case, the attack presents a new reality that all must adjust to. The second round of nuclear talks this week in Vienna present an early opportunity to see how Iran will respond. 8/8