Thread by @jam_croissant, 1/x Here we are @ 4/12. The rally to ATH has transpired [...]

1/x Here we are @ 4/12. The rally to ATH has transpired as predicted & the VIX has tumbled to 13 month lows. The

of weakness has opened & this is where things start to get weird...it’s NEVER straightforward, & imagining how this market will manage to tumble through the

begins https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1380403236260225025

https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1380403236260225025

2/x to become fairly hard to pinpoint. The truth is, that despite Vanna’s

part time sched this week & charm’s

fading strength as the week goes on, Gary’s still very much in control until the

’s get taken away. Any rally to our 4140 *** objective should begin the process

3/x of loosening his grip...& any rally above 4140 toward a 420 spy before 4/20 should only serve to create greater potential energy for a correction in the month to come. Skew in the indices has been shockingly soft given how low IVol has become, NTM particularly in the front of

4/x the curve, as term structure has also steepened so dramatically, that it has left the potential for a wild rumpus to begin w/OTM puts in the front priced at absurdly low Ivols....A sizable buyer of margin puts at this juncture could be all it takes to set off a repricing that

5/x could ripple quickly through the Vol complex starting in the 2.5 weeks to come. This

happens to line up w/a 5 week OpEx cycle, which makes it all the more vulnerable, especially given what seems to be a dangerous liquidity period in what is the Treasury’s greatest monthly

6/x issuance ever($370 mil)..amidst no further SLR support & it’s clearly not a coincidence that our head zookeeper Powell took 60 min out of his Sun to make sure Gary was well FED come Mon morning. Add to this a critical CPI number Tues morn & likely

bank earnings coming Wed,

7/x driven by a

housing market, historic ISM strength above 64, & a steepening yield curve, & it all adds up to the potential for a disturbance in the force... multiple contraction via rates is on le menu. It’s not a Q of if, but when @ this point...& ultimately the stars seem

8/x to be aligning for sooner rather than later, as retail call demand also seems to be softening amidst an economic reopening, tax sails begin to enter LT realized gain status & investors begin the process of making estimated calculations & payments for taxes in the month

9/x to come... Watch Rates like a

. Watch Fixed strike Ivol on the rally. Watch IWM & NDX for underperformance. That’s is where we’ll be proactively adding convex hedges opportunistically to our Tesla & Arkk bets to take advantage of liquidity on the tail when the opportunity

10/x arises. All of this said, as mentioned on Fri, remember it’s never an easy ride. we’re likely to get some more mowing of the

’s & signs of accelerated forced call squeezes across the space before it’s all said & done. The RSI’s are blinking

. So gamma is the name of the

11/x game. With an

to scalping to longer gamma & shorter deltas at each of our levels. If a decline finally comes mid/late next week, be careful buying the initial dip, as seasonality continues to weaken as we approach May & demand flows are waning w/ low short interest @

12/x record low levels, & decreased retail BTD’ers around to cushion the blow. Pair this all w/the potential energy of compressed IVOl & skew, & the tail’s potentially fatter than its been in a while w/an increasingly neg dist as well. If we can make it to 4/26 w/out a close

13/13 below the 20 day, we’ll know that the strength of the rally will continue until mid May. Good luck!!

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