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Great Tesla valuation video by @teslaeconomist. Here's my take:
1. Like @WR4NYGov, he takes a battery driven approach - first assessing how many batteries Tesla will have each year, then calculating products from that
The results are extremely bullish
1/
1. Like @WR4NYGov, he takes a battery driven approach - first assessing how many batteries Tesla will have each year, then calculating products from that
The results are extremely bullish
1/
2. Video assumes mostly automotive use, a small amount for Energy Storage. IMHO storage use should be much larger, bc its margins are higher than cars.
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3. Including energy supply (virtual powerplant with solar or just peaker replacement as in Texas) even more profitable. Profitable + easy to build mean since energy side should grow much faster than auto business.
Battery supply will yield fewer cars than vid, but higher profit
Battery supply will yield fewer cars than vid, but higher profit
4. However, if Tesla does peaker replacement itself, it will get higher profits per cell than from selling the packs, but spread over several years. First year should be negative (costs of making and installing, with only partial year energy revenue). But HUGE long term
5. Vid fefers much of FSD revenues
However, IMHO FSD should be FULLY accounted for after 2021. FSD sale means feature complete level 2, not 4-5. Once city streets fully released, no need to defer anymore, PLUS previously deferred funds (IIRC ~$300m) can be cashed
However, IMHO FSD should be FULLY accounted for after 2021. FSD sale means feature complete level 2, not 4-5. Once city streets fully released, no need to defer anymore, PLUS previously deferred funds (IIRC ~$300m) can be cashed
6. Not deferring and charging more for FSD, plus Transport AAS FSD subscriptions could shift profitability from power to automotive again, however it's choosing between better and even-better - extremely good news for investors.
7. Wrapping up - great video, glad to see someone else beside Warren using a battery supply based model (which @elonmusk also said is right way to go)
Model is extremely bullish, and my comments above show even greater possibilities.
Extremely bullish on $TSLA
Model is extremely bullish, and my comments above show even greater possibilities.
Extremely bullish on $TSLA
@WR4NYGov @jpr007 @garyblack00 @WholeMarsBlog @TeslaStars @Nikola_Truth @TeslaOwls @TeslaStars @IamKarsten @stekkerauto @stevenmarkryan @snapdragonsclaw
8.
PS
I also assume larger battery supply!
Beside old-tech ramping and Tesla's own 4680s, the number of companies to make 4680s for Tesla constantly growing
LG, Panasonic and CATL, plus last week we heard of CBAK Energy Technology $CBAT joining. Expecting more announcements!
PS
I also assume larger battery supply!
Beside old-tech ramping and Tesla's own 4680s, the number of companies to make 4680s for Tesla constantly growing
LG, Panasonic and CATL, plus last week we heard of CBAK Energy Technology $CBAT joining. Expecting more announcements!
