Here's your Sunday COVID analysis. Hold onto your hats, it ain't pretty. 1/

New cases at 1183 look superficially good. Wait, weren't they way higher yesterday? But this is typically one of the lighter days, so let's look at last week's: 938. So 26% increase. Positivity 7.96%, down from last week's 8.55%. Yay! 2/

That's the last of the good news. Variants: 942 announced today, so 79.6% of announced cases. P1 +27 to 102, a 33% increase in total numbers... in one day! B117 apr 7 797/1435 so 55.5% of total, Apr 8 852/1550 so 55%. P1 #s reporting lags B1117 by a week. 3/

B1117 daily cases doubling time 8 days. 7 day average of daily totals doubling about 14 days (similar to the worst rise of the 2nd wave). Rt 1.24 slightly down from 1.28 yesterday. New vaccine milestone reached with 15% ABs with at least a single shot. 4/

Hosp inpts+21 (8% one day increase) to 286, ICU +6 (7% in one day) to 90. Total hosp +27 to 376. Noticably rising curve (source https://www.alberta.ca/stats/covid-19-alberta-statistics.htm#severe-outcomes). 5/

Mortality remains impressively low. 1 new death, no new variant deaths. Let's hope that holds. 6/

Now the unavoidable editorializing. Because this is the #preventableandpredictable wave, it needs to be noted that all of the illnesses and cases and longcovid were predicted and could have been prevented. Our leaders chose not to, and now we must suffer... 7/

And with every day that we refuse to act, more of the same. The new policy to use rapid testing in schools? Great in times of low outbreaks, now just spitting on a housefire. We need school closures, and many more new restrictions. fin/