People are assuming it would have been different with 2 doses, which might be true, but it's hardly obvious. There was an outbreak in my grandmother LTCF after every resident had received 2 doses and according to the doctor my father talked to this is not uncommon. https://twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1381040347833241605

As I said in January, I think there are good reasons to think the most vulnerable people were undersampled in the trials, so unfortunately I suspect we're going to find out that vaccines are less effective on this group, even after 2 doses. https://twitter.com/phl43/status/1349799969130209280

If this turns out to be true, it's very important that public health officials and the media don't lie about it to maintain trust in vaccines, because I think it will inevitably backfire and make things even worse. Unfortunately it's probably what they'll do though.

To be clear, this is not a criticism of vaccines, which are still the only way we are going to end this. I'm just saying that they probably aren't effective as trials suggested on the most vulnerable people and that it's important not to lie about that.

What I fear is that public health officials and journalists are going to lie about this, but eventually people will find out and they will conclude that vaccines are useless for everybody. Sadly I think it's very likely that it's exactly what is going to happen.