Let’s be clear about the purpose of these latest Israeli attacks on Iranian facilities. It is not to “set back Iran’s nuclear program” as will be widely claimed. It is to set back diplomacy. And it’s not a new tactic. A thread.... 1/

From Israel’s perspective, these acts are a brilliant move because they put US in an impossible position. If Biden team condemns them, it will be raked across the coals domestically for criticising Israel — a total non-starter. On the other hand.... 2/

If Biden team says nothing, it gives the impression that US condones (or was even somehow complicit with) the attack. This, in turn, makes Iran more inflexible in its position — and more likely to accuse US of negotiating in bad faith. On top of all that.... 3/

There is no chance Iran will agree to scale back enrichment now because how would that look to its domestic population? What government would ever make concessions like that while its nuclear facilities are being literally attacked?... 4/

It’s an ingenious tactic and one only Israel can really employ. In effect, it gives them a unique kind of leverage, so that they become almost like an unofficial member of the P5+1 — able to veto or at least complicate the decisions of the other members.... 5/

It’s also precisely what they did in 2011-2012. Just as Iran nuclear talks were finally starting to get somewhere, they began assassinating nuclear scientists on the streets of Tehran, putting Hillary Clinton and the State Dept in a very difficult bind.... 6/

All of this is outlined in my book, America and Iran: A History, 1720 to the Present
@AAKnopf https://bit.ly/America_and_Iran