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Reports of another incident at Natanz targeting Iran& #39;s nuclear program has inevitably led to speculation of Israeli involvement. A few thoughts. https://twitter.com/gilicohen10/status/1381270193217896464">https://twitter.com/gilicohen...
It& #39;s getting increasingly difficult to see the Israel-Iran conflict as a shadow war. The attacks in multiple domains (cyber, maritime, land, esp in Syria) has been ongoing with both sides believing they can control escalation.
The attacks are not just linked to renewed diplomacy in Vienna--we saw an attack on Natanz last summer when there was no prospect of diplomacy and as part of Israel& #39;s "Octopus" strategy: https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/07/an-israeli-escalation-against-iran.html">https://www.rand.org/blog/2020...
During the Trump administration Israel believed it had a green light for such attacks under the cover of maximum pressure. Even under Obama the US supported cyber attacks against Iran& #39;s nuclear program (Stuxnet) when there was no prospect of diplomacy.
But today is different because there is a viable diplomatic path forward. And attacks within Iran itself are far riskier now in the context of the wider regional escalation, and certainly riskier than attacks against Iranian assets in the Syrian theatre.
The question is what message is the Biden administration sending to Israel? It& #39;s unlikely the US would welcome such attacks at this sensitive time in diplomacy.
Finally, it& #39;s not clear this is a just a Bibi gambit as he fights for his political survival after the deadlocked Israeli elections.
With some exceptions, the majority of Israel& #39;s political and even security elite do not want to see a return to the original JCPOA. https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/00396338.2020.1792095">https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/...
So we can expect more Israeli resistance to reviving the JCPOA regardless of how elections unfold. The US-Israel strategic dialogue is important and can alleviate tensions but ultimately cannot remove different interpretations about the value of the JCPOA.
