Why are Michigan& #39;s COVID numbers so scary?

What is Gov. Whitmer doing and what is she *not* doing? And why?

Here’s an article on that -- and a thread (1) https://www.huffpost.com/entry/michigan-covid-whitmer-dining-school-vaccine_n_6070977dc5b6a74b3bdade7d">https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mic...
With Michigan's COVID-19 Numbers Soaring, Whitmer Calls For 'Voluntary' Pause

Americans are really quite done with the pandemic, but it's not over yet.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/michigan-covid-whitmer-dining-school-vaccine_n_6070977dc5b6a74b3bdade7d
It’s not just the caseload numbers that are spiking. It’s also the hospitalizations.

Facilities are filling up, delaying elective procedures, etc.

Via @KristenShamus @HealthBridgeMI (2)

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2021/04/08/university-michigan-postpones-surgical-procedures-coronavirus-covid-19/7140962002/">https://www.freep.com/story/new... https://www.freep.com/story/news/2021/04/10/covid-19-capacity-michigan-hospitals/7160162002/">https://www.freep.com/story/new...
Workers weary, patients angry, as COVID-19 fills Michigan hospitals — again

Health care workers say staff camaraderie forged in last year’s chaos has started to fracture.

https://www.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2021/04/08/university-michigan-postpones-surgical-procedures-coronavirus-covid-19/7140962002/
You may have seen this desperate tweet from @umich surgery chairman @jdimick1 (3) https://twitter.com/jdimick1/status/1380159770422874124">https://twitter.com/jdimick1/...
Head of Henry Ford Health System is on @Local4News -- says average inpatient age for COVID is 12 years younger than it was before.

Proves vaccines work, he notes. But also a reminder that younger people get seriously ill too. Says many will have lingering effects. (4)
Why the spiking numbers? There’s no single explanation, according to epidemiologists and other experts

Here’s @MartinEpi (who knows as much about Michigan& #39;s situation as anybody)

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/michigan-covid-whitmer-dining-school-vaccine_n_6070977dc5b6a74b3bdade7d">https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mic... (5)
Other factors researchers have cited

(a) Michigan was one of first states to see B.117
(b) Success at preventing infection earlier may have left a larger vulnerable population now

Here’s @ashishkjha (one of the experts Whitmer consults)

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/michigan-covid-whitmer-dining-school-vaccine_n_6070977dc5b6a74b3bdade7d">https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mic... (6)
Public health experts were pushing for Gov. Whitmer to act, issue orders to pause indoor dining.

@AbdulElSayed was one of them. He proposed tying restrictions to vaccination progress, which I thought was an interesting idea. (7) https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/04/01/michigan-covid-cases-spike/">https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/...
Opinion | Here’s why Michigan’s covid spike is so scary

The state leads the nation in rising infections. But it's not too late to rein in the outbreak.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/04/01/michigan-covid-cases-spike/
Whitmer instead opted for a voluntary pause. She urged people to avoid indoor dining, etc., but declined to give orders.

Said it was more a compliance problem than a policy problem. (8) https://www.huffpost.com/entry/michigan-covid-whitmer-dining-school-vaccine_n_6070977dc5b6a74b3bdade7d">https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mic...
With Michigan's COVID-19 Numbers Soaring, Whitmer Calls For 'Voluntary' Pause

Americans are really quite done with the pandemic, but it's not over yet.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/michigan-covid-whitmer-dining-school-vaccine_n_6070977dc5b6a74b3bdade7d
Whitmer won acclaim for tough COVID policies last year. But in January, Health Secretary Robert Gordon abruptly resigned.

Internal emails, which @CraigDMauger later obtained, showed he worried reopening too quickly would risk outbreaks. https://www.detroitnews.com/restricted/?return=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.detroitnews.com%2Fstory%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2F2021%2F03%2F30%2Femails-reveal-michigan-health-officials-had-more-cautious-restaurant-plan%2F7059016002%2F">https://www.detroitnews.com/restricte... (9)
Whitmer won acclaim for tough COVID policies last year. But in January, Health Secretary Robert Gordon abruptly resigned. Internal emails, which @CraigDMauger later obtained, showed he worried reopening too quickly would risk outbreaks. https://www.detroitnews.com/restricte... (9)
Whitmer won acclaim for tough COVID policies last year. But in January, Health Secretary Robert Gordon abruptly resigned. Internal emails, which @CraigDMauger later obtained, showed he worried reopening too quickly would risk outbreaks. https://www.detroitnews.com/restricte... (9)
Context for all of this is relentless pushback from Republicans, who even now, with the numbers spiking, want to dial back restrictions already in place.

Here& #39;s how GOP House Speaker responded to Whitmer announcement https://www.huffpost.com/entry/michigan-covid-whitmer-dining-school-vaccine_n_6070977dc5b6a74b3bdade7d">https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mic... (10)
And compliance issues are real.

This report from Michigan& #39;s "thumb" is one of the best pieces I& #39;ve read on the situation there, and the role public attitudes are playing in the current spike.

It& #39;s from @kzjuliemack @MLive (11) https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2021/04/many-of-michigans-thumb-residents-are-done-with-covid-19-pandemic-even-as-virus-rages-like-wildfire.html">https://www.mlive.com/public-in...
Many of Michigan’s Thumb residents are done with COVID-19 pandemic, even as virus rages like...

Michigan's Thumb region currently is the hottest of hot spots in the country for coronavirus transmission, but many residents brush off COVID mitigation strategies.

https://www.mlive.com/public-interest/2021/04/many-of-michigans-thumb-residents-are-done-with-covid-19-pandemic-even-as-virus-rages-like-wildfire.html
That article -- and the situation here generally -- reminds me of something my former colleague @JeffYoung wrote last year:

"We may be finished with the coronavirus, but the virus isn’t finished with us." (12) https://www.huffpost.com/entry/the-coronavirus-doesnt-care-that-were-bored_n_5eebbc0dc5b6d9234ce7b1b7">https://www.huffpost.com/entry/the...
The Coronavirus Pandemic Doesn't Care That We're All Bored With It

From President Donald Trump on down, a lot of Americans are behaving as though the crisis is over. It isn't.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/the-coronavirus-doesnt-care-that-were-bored_n_5eebbc0dc5b6d9234ce7b1b7
But it& #39;s especially frustrating now, because we& #39;re *so* close to the end.

We& #39;re vaccinating people quickly now and the shots work. As @AbdulElSayed says, we just need to hold out a little bit longer. https://www.huffpost.com/entry/michigan-covid-whitmer-dining-school-vaccine_n_6070977dc5b6a74b3bdade7d">https://www.huffpost.com/entry/mic... (13)
Similar sentiments from @MonaHannaA (14) https://twitter.com/MonaHannaA/status/1380323234126651396">https://twitter.com/MonaHanna...
Earlier @LtGovGilchrist was on CNN. Here -- via @DNBethLeBlanc -- was his explanation of why Whitmer opted for a voluntary pause, rather than a mandatory one. (15) https://twitter.com/DNBethLeBlanc/status/1381225976282120196">https://twitter.com/DNBethLeB...
And on @FaceTheNation Whitmer repeated her call for more vaccine supply from the federal government, something the Biden administration has resisted. (16) https://twitter.com/FaceTheNation/status/1381267156705349638">https://twitter.com/FaceTheNa...
The Biden administration has agreed to send vaccinators and testing supplies, but not more vaccine, citing fairness and unpredictability of coming surges.

Also they& #39;ve said Michigan already has surplus.

Yes, you are detecting some tension there. (17)
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