I've been following the UK lately, which has mostly smothered its B117-driven outbreak, with very low cases and deaths currently - the equivalent of 8,000 new cases and 180 new deaths in the US. Notably, cases and deaths are even lower than Israel’s now

It has had one of the faster vaccine rollouts in the world, with close to 50% of the full population vaccinated now (pretty much everyone one dose only). While it’s tempting to draw comparisons to the US, I don’t think the two countries will follow similar paths

The UK is also doing something novel - testing! An absolutely insane number of tests, over 5x the per pop number in the US. Positive rate of 0.4%

For those hoping US cases plummet when we reach a similar vax level, that seems unlikely to me. The UK has been *way* more restrictive than us. I’m no expert on it, but a list is here (stay at home orders, schools closed, non-essential biz closed) https://www.gov.uk/guidance/covid-19-coronavirus-restrictions-what-you-can-and-cannot-do

These lockdowns (actual ones, not just the catch-all term we’ve politicized in the US to mean any public health restrictions) come at a huge cost obviously, but together with testing and vaccines they have tamed one of the world’s worst outbreaks

I don’t think this is something we’re likely to replicate in the US. For better or worse, our decline will be bumpier and more gradual

All charts are from Our World in Data https://ourworldindata.org/