1/ Eventually we will see a decoupling of new #COVID19 cases from hospitalizations as population-level immunity grows (through vaccination & recovery from natural infection), especially among those at greatest risk for more severe infections.

2/ But with variants of concern driving more explosive outbreaks, causing more significant symptoms & impacting younger people, this decoupling of new cases from hospitalization will require more widespread population-level immunity.

3/ No fear mongering or 'sky-is-falling' rhetoric here, but a 4th wave is certainly possible if we rapidly & prematurely re-open as we exit wave 3, especially if we don't have a significant degree of population-level immunity at that time.

4/ This infection rips through non-immune populations like shit through a goose, especially when there are no/few measures to control transmission.

The impact of any potential 4th wave on our healthcare system will depend on who is vaccinated & how widespread vaccination is.

5/ Want to end this 3rd wave & avoid a potential 4th wave? Need equitable & rapid vaccination based on risk of severe outcomes & risk of getting infected (e.g. essential workers/high burden neighbourhoods) coupled with sound public health policy to get us through spring.

Addendum: so people haven't heard that goose expression? Must be a Western Canadian thing.