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So, will this be Inflation Freakout Week? Maybe, or maybe it will wait a month or two. But soon we'll be seeing some big headline price rises — and it will be important to put them in context. Even if you're worried about a long hot Summers of overheating, this won't be it 1/
Where we are now is that what looks like rapid economic recovery will run into bottlenecks that cause some prices to rise quickly — and temporarily. That is, it won't represent a rise in underlying inflation, it will just be a blip 2/
A fairly recent historical precedent: early 2008, when rising global demand hit bottlenecks in commodity production. Commodity prices really surged 3/
And headline inflation — but not core inflation — soared 4/
There were a lot of people calling on the Fed to slam the brakes, even though as we now know we were already in recession. The Fed stayed calm; the ECB didn't 5/
So right now, Don't Panic. By all means let's stay alert about possible inflationary overheating some months down the road, but the bottleneck inflation we'll see in the short term should be discounted 6/
