There’s some dismay in Labour ranks about polls like this, showing Lab several points behind the Tories. So here’s a thread about Covid and the natural advantages of incumbency.

In 8 of the last 11 elections, the government incumbent won. 1/ https://twitter.com/BritainElects/status/1376843718632869888?s=20

The 3 times when the Opposition won were after serious crises which (rightly or wrongly) damaged the government’s reputation (Winter of Discontent, Black Wednesday, Global Financial Crisis).
Many expected the Covid crisis would be a similar moment for the Tories. 2/

But international comparisons show that nearly all incumbent governments saw an initial rise in support. Government approval in countries with higher case rates (including the UK) then fell back, but mostly to the same levels as before the pandemic. 3/
https://voxeu.org/article/political-consequences-covid-pandemic

So despite the high death toll overall, many voters were prepared to give the government the benefit of the doubt in dealing with an unpredictable and unprecedented situation.

Nevertheless, last autumn faith in the government’s handling of Covid reached its nadir. 4/

This had an impact on the polls – in Nov some polls showed Labour ahead.

Yet with the success of the vaccine rollout program, the public’s approval of the government’s handling of the pandemic has picked up, along with its polling figures. (See graph below, source: @YouGov) 5/

@OpiniumResearch has now found that approval of the government’s handling of the pandemic overall is net positive for the first time since last May. 44% approve and 36% disapprove. 6/ https://www.opinium.com/resource-center/uk-voting-intention-8th-april-2021/

The fall in Tory support last autumn was mainly down to GE2019 Con voters moving to “Don’t Know” rather than switching to another party and now they've shifted back to supporting the Tories.

The graph shows Con voters voting intention Oct vs Mar. @OpiniumResearch. 7/

And because of the level of government intervention necessary to deal with his particular crisis, the government’s voice has been completely dominant in the media, allowing the Opposition little space to get its own viewpoint across. 8/

This is despite the fact that Labour are actually polling pretty well on a number of issues versus the Conservatives (a remarkable turnaround since December 2019). 9/ https://twitter.com/RedfieldWilton/status/1380445381893500931?s=20

Unless the government makes another serious mistake, the healthcare part of the Covid crisis is unlikely to cost the Tories much support. And as long as an incumbent government is seen as reasonably competent, most swing voters will tend to stick with them. 10/

HOWEVER the inevitable economic part of the Covid crisis has not yet impacted.

This extraordinary graph shows that, despite the worst recession for centuries, most groups of UK workers/pensioners have seen their savings increase rather than decrease. 11/ https://twitter.com/ProfTimBale/status/1380052844229898245?s=20

When the government finally ends the furlough scheme and other support measures, the economic outlook for many households may look bleaker. Particularly if the Tories don't do enough to help affected workers transition to new jobs. The honeymoon could be over soon. 12/

Covid has dealt the Opposition a difficult hand and current polls reflect that.

Yet Labour *must* be ready to respond if the government does falter, with a compelling diagnosis of what the Tories have got wrong, and a compelling alternative as to what Lab would do better. 13/

And, for me, both sides of this equation feel rather lacking.

But the time to finally judge Starmer’s Labour party won't be at the local elections which take place against an unpromising background, but when the Tories both make serious errors *and* are blamed for them. ENDS