The reporting in this article reiterates that the UK government's approach to an #indyref2 campaign could include pressuring the EU to intervene in its favour. Yet, that prospect is less than remote. Une discussion #SP2021 http://thetimes.co.uk/article/scottish-nationalist-parties-election-success-may-force-boris-johnson-into-indyref-96638msgp

Given the apparent state of debate in London, it is necessary to clarify what should be obvious: the European Union decides who joins the EU. Non-EU countries have no role. Contrast with 2014, where the UK, as an EU member, would have had a major say on a Scottish EU application

The Trade and Cooperation Agreement stipulates that the EU will inform the UK of EU membership applications – in relation to the TCA only. That does not give the UK say in the EU's decision-making. When any state joins the EU in future, the TCA will have to be amended as a result

The article reports that a senior UK Conservative source would recommend that the UK government make this argument to the EU: "Either you make clear that you won’t be welcoming Scotland, or we will go around telling every small country in the EU that they should leave."

If such a comment is reflective of the UK government's level of understanding of the EU, then it is little wonder that its approach to the Brexit process – from start to finish – was an embarrassing ramshackle of crisis. Barnier must rejoice in having retired from the Commission

In practice, this argument would translate as the UK saying to the EU: "Interfere in Scotland's democratic debate, or we will seek to undermine the integrity of the European Union." That would be a menace – not a request. It could easily break the spirit of the TCA – perhaps more

Do we even have to say that this line would not work? The EU would not respond positively to a menacing demand. The EU would not assist the state which made it go through Brexit. The EU would not want to get involved in the Scottish independence debate. Why is this not obvious?

The EU arguably did end up getting involved in #indyref 1 to some extent, such as through Barroso's comments at the time. The EU institutions and Member States will want to avoid becoming involved in #indyref2. With the UK no longer an EU member, that should be easier to achieve

If the UK did pursue this type of strategy towards the EU, it would utterly backfire (once again) – strengthening the EU's resolve and provoking unity against a common external challenge. It would further damage EU-UK relations and limit the prospects for their long-term recovery

Scotland's relationship with the EU is an essential part of the #indyref2 conversation – and it should be debated in full. However, attempting to get the EU to intervene in the debate would be unwise. Independence is a matter for the people of Scotland to decide – FIN –