Ok, so lets break a rule and talk about the relative safety of schools. I don't normally talk about this because no matter what I say my mentions get angry and cyber bullying is effective.

Children are not magic unicorns, but they are not as bad as I thought they would be. https://twitter.com/PHealthGnome/status/1270453698934771712

In general, the data on schools sucks. This is part Salesforce, part definitions, part suspended contact tracing, and part health units having to decide between painting a nice picture for epidemiologists or getting the work done. I know this erodes trust.

Some health units haven't had to curtail contact tracing and some, like Ottawa, put a lot of resources into schools. I know you might not accept a "trust us" but the people working in public health really do.

Seriously reporters, talk to Ottawa and CHEO.

After bashing the data I do want to pull out one thing

The median size for outbreaks across most sectors is pretty small. Using median outbreak size as a defense of schools is gaslighting.

I mentioned definitions, and this is important. We define a school case as any case where someone attends school. The health units that have capacity to contact trace effectively find the vast vast majority are linked to exposures outside of school.

Outbreaks are another issue. If the guidance is followed you shut down the entire cohort unless you have a reason not to and test everyone. We really haven't found much spread and the a good chunk of the spread we found often has exposures outside of school.

Things like working on a group project, taking a car together to get lunch, swapping spit in the back of a Volkswagen, ect... These are still school outbreaks.

Some health units have looked really hard for spread in school and we just aren't finding it.

The same can't be said for similar settings that aren't following school guidance. Again this is a trust us issue. Public health really believes that not much transmission occurs in schools and that the measures currently in place are sufficiently effective.

Most people think about masks, distancing, and ventilation when we talk about measures but you are missing one... contact tracing. Contact tracing for schools is one of the last things to go and it is important.

1. A lot of our school cases have no, or minimal pre-symptomatic, exposures in schools because we isolated them when their contacts became ill. We do a little fist pump when this happens.

2. By shutting down entire cohorts we minimize the potential for big outbreaks.

As cases increase, contact tracing is going to go the way of the dodo again. This includes contact tracing for schools which is incredibly resource intensive. When that goes, I don't think schools can be open anymore.

Yes we know that open schools causes cases to rise and closing schools causes cases to fall. First to open last to close and I think public health genuinely believes this is an inherent risk taking once they are open on the part of the general public.

Once again. Children are not magic unicorns. They are also don't look to be the plague spreaders they are for other diseases. I have children and have managed daycare outbreaks before. I was openly concerned about the reports of B117 in children and I still am.

Safe vs Unsafe is not a binary thing, it is a continuum. Can schools be safer? Yes.
Are they so unsafe that they should be universally closed? No
Should they be closed where the protections in place can no longer be maintained? I think so.

Oh right, the whole point of this thread. This is why Ottawa could reasonably think schools could be justified in being open this previous week while at the same time thinking that they will not re-open after April break. I'm inclined to agree.