If you’re interested in geopolitical+tech risks, read @inafried @axios on #Taiwan https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-login-6801338c-9668-467e-b983-d74d182b5535.html?chunk=0&utm_campaign=axios_app#story0

Time to update/revisit my @medium piece from Aug 2020 on the 3 Chinas on a collision course >> https://link.medium.com/qxQQBl73lfb  #China #Taiwan #HongKong

@jordanschnyc’s ChinaTalk newsletter highlights the very real economic security risk to the US of its nearly fabless #semiconductor strategy. https://chinatalk.substack.com/p/labs-over-fabs-risc-vs-promise? #Taiwan

@Noahpinion’s Apr 7 @SubstackInc connects more dots on #Taiwan as a central thorn in the US China competition https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-great-protest-wave?

@Noahpinion links to the incoming US chief of its Indo Pacific command’s thunderous statement that China’s threat of an invasion of #Taiwan is “closer than most think”. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/23/taiwan-china-threat-admiral-john-aquilino

I posited in a Sep 2020 piece that #China is in a hastened state of societal sickness. This should worry US policymakers and chiefly @SecBlinken the most. https://link.medium.com/S0964vndmfb 

#perspectiveandcontext re #China & US current cold war: if @JoeBiden is able to guide out of #COVID19 into a significant economic boom, will work hard to weaken it&force to defend #Taiwan. fought wars to protect its access to key materials, semiconductors > oil in 21.

I’m bullish re b/c #XiJinping’s #China =colossus w/ clay feet: weak demography, near 0 ability to attract talent, middle class emigrating by millions. This also makes Xi desperate&his model is #Putin, champion of asymmetric conflict. How would react to blockade of #Taiwan?

A successful pushback to a Chinese blockade rests on alliances w/ India, South Korea and Japan IMO. Duterte cannot be counted on&Malaysia/Indonesia seem uneasy to ally againsg China. @SecBlinken will surely work hard to revive ’s close ties in the region.

The rumblings of war in the region between the US and #China remind me of an extremely prescient @TheAtlantic piece from 2005 by Robert D. Kaplan https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2005/06/how-we-would-fight-china/303959/

Bookending this thread, a must-read by @axios @BethanyAllenEbr on #China’s ploy to draw global lines re its repression of #Uyghurs. https://www.axios.com/global-capitalism-china-repression-uyghurs-ce212d30-d921-431b-8995-5e25021445d0.html?