THREAD: Do your moments need to appreciate in value for NBA Top Shot to succeed as a business?

I've heard some 'influencers' say "Your moments don't need to appreciate in value for @nbatopshot to be a successful company."

Let's talk about this.

2) For Topshot to succeed as a startup, they need Revenue. To the best of my knowledge, their key revenue channels are from the marketplace and pack drops.

A 50,000 base drop generates $450,000 in revenue. If they do two drops a week, this nets approximately $900k weekly...

3) or 3.8 million monthly. Add in one legendary drop of 2,500 base packs at $999 + 35,000 rare packs at $199 and that's an additional $8.4 million monthly.

Combined, this is around $12 million monthly from pack drops. If they raise prices or increase the cadence, this number

4) So we can assume they'll generate around $140-$150 million annually from pack drops.

Over the last 6 months @NBATopShot brought in over $500 million from the marketplace. Idk what Dapper's split is from the 5% MP fee, but we can assume they take away $10m-$20m over 6 months

5) or $20 - $40m annually, this number is obviously dependent on marketplace fluctuations.

So this brings me to my main question, if Dapper labs can succeed as a company without moments appreciating in value, where would their revenue come from?

6) Pack drop revenue is fixed unless they drastically increase the price or number of packs dropped.

Marketplace revenue is the key variable they can grow from marketing and 'activation.' High marketplace activity typically means moments will appreciate in value,

7) but that is a correlation not causation. The way I see it, for Top Shot to succeed as a company, they need increased marketplace activity. Marketplace activity means volume and volume is healthy.

8) DISCLAIMER: I'm not a data guy so my math isn't perfect but you get the point. Let's have a healthy discussion, all perspectives welcome

@MetaKingJames @TopShotToday @kibaa_hok @SteefCrypto Thoughts?!