With the #NFLDraft approaching I thought I’d put together a thread on the impact of recruiting pedigree on 1st Round Draft Capital.

Plus some of this year’s top first round candidates who defied all odds and may hear their name called on Day One of the #NFLDraft2021. Enjoy...

The First Round of the #NFLDraft is typically split something like this when it comes to pedigree:

Pedigree: Players Selected
5 Stars: 6-7
4 Stars: 9-10
3 Stars: 8-9
2 Stars or Less: 7-8

So does that mean each level of pedigree has a similar shot at 1st Round Capital? Lol no…

According to the @247Sports Composite, since 2002 recruiting classes are typically composed like this:

5 Stars: ~34
4 Stars: ~260
3 Stars: ~1200

***Although in recent years there are actually typically around 2000 players (or a bit more) that receive a 3 Star rating or better.

There are typically ~250,000 graduating football playing seniors in the most recent recruiting classes. That means that seriously something like ~248,000 of them get a 2 Star rating or worse…

So what does this all mean for each tier of pedigree and their typical first round chances when we look at every potential recruit since 2002?

Pedigree: % that see 1st Round Cap
5 Stars: ~20%
4 Stars: ~4%
3 Stars: ~0.7%
2 Stars or Less: 0.003%

Even if we reduce the recruit/prospect pool of the ”2 Stars or Less” cohort to the ~10,000+ players who end up sticking on one of the ~800 post high school football programs in the U.S. their 1st Round % still only improves to (at best) 0.07%...still 10x less likely than 3 Stars.

So before we boo our favorite team’s 1st Round selection or say things like “Player X is terrible” (or something worse) let’s just think about how insane the odds were for any of them to reach this pinnacle of pro prospects…

The 5 Stars were deemed to be among the top 0.014% of all high school football players in the nation. That alone is an absurd accomplishment. But then to reach first round capital they still had to beat out 80% of those elite contemporaries. Elite among the elite…

The 3 & 4 Stars were also (at the very least) among the top 0.8% of all high school football players in the nation. The 4 stars then beat out 96% of their rating range peers and the 3 stars beat out 99.3% of theirs to reach Day One Capital…

And those 2 Stars or Fewer...the maybe 8 of them that will land 1st Round Capital this year...they're the only 8 of the ~248,000 from their senior class who failed to attain meaningful college recruiting status yet still found their way to Day One Capital. Near impossible odds…

Possible 1st Round 5 Stars this year:

Player, Position (Class Rank)
Trevor Lawrence, QB (1)
Jaelan Phillips, EDGE (1)
Justin Fields, QB (2)
Najee Harris, RB (2)
Micah Parsons, LB (5)
Patrick Surtain II, CB (6)
Baron Browning, LB (11)
Terrace Marshall, WR (13)
Maybe a few more…

Possible 1st Round 4 Stars:

Brevin Jordan, TE (33)
Jaylen Waddle, WR (39)
Penei Sewell, OL (57)
Devonta Smith, WR (62)
Ja’Marr Chase, WR (84)
Alijah Vera-Tucker, OL (114)
Azeez Ojulari, EDGE (144)
Kyle Pitts, TE (162)
Jaycee Horn, CB (209)
Travis Etienne, RB (213)
+ a few more

Possible 1st Round 3 Stars:

Mac Jones, QB (399)
Kadarius Toney, WR (421)
Caleb Farley, CB (428)
Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, LB (456)
Trevon Moehrig, S (469)
Gregory Rousseau (485)
Kwity Paye, EDGE (486)
Rashawn Slater, OL (653)
Zach Wilson, QB (958)
plus a few more...

And finally...

Possible 1st Round 2> Stars this year:

Christian Darrisaw, OL
Trey Lance, QB
Zaven Collins, LB
Dillon Radunz, OL

We’re actually quite low on potential first round 2 Stars or Less prospects this year. Rooting for all of these guys to get Round One Capital.

I know this was a "nobody was asking" kind of thread...and I'm sure I messed up a detail or two somewhere. That's okay. I've been living in the weeds of recruiting data and this is what happened.