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#GalaxyDigital's the BEST listed global peer for #KR1 & both are UNIQUE in the #crypto stk universe for their #VC/ #merchant banking approach to crypto inv't...
https://wexboy.wordpress.com/2020/11/21/kr1-plc-the-crypto-alpha-bet/
... #Galaxy wears the crown in N America, so #KR1 is 'Europe's leading digital asset inv't co'!
https://wexboy.wordpress.com/2020/11/21/kr1-plc-the-crypto-alpha-bet/
... #Galaxy wears the crown in N America, so #KR1 is 'Europe's leading digital asset inv't co'!
'Course, I'm alrdy upsetting the #Galaxy #fanboys making such a cheeky comparison... 
...but hey, let's press on & expose the dumb #biases tht (almost inevitably) prompt punters (& even fund managers) to opt for (& PAY UP for) #Galaxy rather than #KR1!?
...but hey, let's press on & expose the dumb #biases tht (almost inevitably) prompt punters (& even fund managers) to opt for (& PAY UP for) #Galaxy rather than #KR1!?
Cos it feels really comfortable buying/paying up for #Galaxy...
...a #pureplay offering exposure to incredible #crypto upside pot'l, a bet on #MikeNovogratz who's on CNBC/Bloomberg every wk & a stk tht alrdy boasts an $8.2B mkt cap.
So why wd you buy some unknown tiddler #KR1?!
...a #pureplay offering exposure to incredible #crypto upside pot'l, a bet on #MikeNovogratz who's on CNBC/Bloomberg every wk & a stk tht alrdy boasts an $8.2B mkt cap.
So why wd you buy some unknown tiddler #KR1?!
All the usual silly #biases:
Any price/multiple's worth paying for $BRPHF, cos you know...incredible #crypto upside pot'l!
I won't dispute tht...I'll jst point out #KR1 obviously offers the SAME incredible #crypto upside pot'l!
As do all #crypto stks...apparently!?
Any price/multiple's worth paying for $BRPHF, cos you know...incredible #crypto upside pot'l!
I won't dispute tht...I'll jst point out #KR1 obviously offers the SAME incredible #crypto upside pot'l!
As do all #crypto stks...apparently!?
And I get it, watching #Novo wax #crypto-lyrical is both exciting & reassuring!
Except his chopper cd go down in flames tomorrow...who else in #Galaxy has tht magic touch?
And TV pitches are worthless if he/ #Galaxy don't deliver...intrinsic val gains are ultimately wht matter!
Except his chopper cd go down in flames tomorrow...who else in #Galaxy has tht magic touch?
And TV pitches are worthless if he/ #Galaxy don't deliver...intrinsic val gains are ultimately wht matter!
And #sizeeffect is the dumbest (& laziest) bias:
Actually, $BRPHF does NOT boast the $8.2B mkt cap you see on BBG & many other fin'l screens/websites!
Tht $8.2B's actually the grossed up reval. of the underlying private Galaxy LP tht $BRPHF invests in...at $BRPHF's mkt price!?!
Actually, $BRPHF does NOT boast the $8.2B mkt cap you see on BBG & many other fin'l screens/websites!
Tht $8.2B's actually the grossed up reval. of the underlying private Galaxy LP tht $BRPHF invests in...at $BRPHF's mkt price!?!
An entirely notional metric..!?
$BRPHF listed mkt cap's actually $2.4B...and extraordinary absolute/relative valuation (differences) can be very ephemeral.
In reality, on a far more tangible NAV basis, #KR1's almost TWO THIRDS the size of $BRPHF!
So much for tht #sizeeffect...
$BRPHF listed mkt cap's actually $2.4B...and extraordinary absolute/relative valuation (differences) can be very ephemeral.
In reality, on a far more tangible NAV basis, #KR1's almost TWO THIRDS the size of $BRPHF!
So much for tht #sizeeffect...
So let's talk no's, instd of #biases:
As you know, I regularly update/tweet #KR1's NAV (& FV, using a 2.5 P/B), using the exact SAME approach as I did in Nov, simply updating for mkt prices (& any gains on new hldgs since): https://wexboy.wordpress.com/2020/11/21/kr1-plc-the-crypto-alpha-bet/
As you know, I regularly update/tweet #KR1's NAV (& FV, using a 2.5 P/B), using the exact SAME approach as I did in Nov, simply updating for mkt prices (& any gains on new hldgs since): https://wexboy.wordpress.com/2020/11/21/kr1-plc-the-crypto-alpha-bet/
Challenge is to derive a current/apples-to-apples #Galaxy NAV...
...again I'll prob piss off #fanboys, who i) don't seem to pay any att'n/realize all #crypto inv't & mining co's are ultimately anchored by their bal shts, and ii) thk #Galaxy's some super-charged #BTC
/ #crypto bet!
...again I'll prob piss off #fanboys, who i) don't seem to pay any att'n/realize all #crypto inv't & mining co's are ultimately anchored by their bal shts, and ii) thk #Galaxy's some super-charged #BTC
/ #crypto bet!
Actually, it's pretty simple:
- Abt 40% of #Galaxy portfolio is in #BTC
- #crypto inv'ts usually remain at #cost til next funding round/are sold/start trading (SAME for #KR1's unlisted inv'ts)
- Loans...held at face val
- Bal. allocated to trading/asset mgmt operating units.
- Abt 40% of #Galaxy portfolio is in #BTC
- #crypto inv'ts usually remain at #cost til next funding round/are sold/start trading (SAME for #KR1's unlisted inv'ts)
- Loans...held at face val
- Bal. allocated to trading/asset mgmt operating units.
And those units are still nascent biz #Galaxy's still building...NOT saying trading isn't profitable, bt personnel/infrastructure req'd is REALLY expensive!
So #Galaxy's 14% expense ratio's a HUGE hurdle for its P&L/bal sht...while #KR1's fixed expense base is now sub-0.5%!
So #Galaxy's 14% expense ratio's a HUGE hurdle for its P&L/bal sht...while #KR1's fixed expense base is now sub-0.5%!
And so, it was/is entirely logical to expect its qtrly NAV gain to be maybe 40-50% of #BTC 's gain...
...EXACTLY wht we saw in Q4, i.e. 50% of BTC's gain:
#BTC up +165% from $10.8K to $28.6K
$BRPHF NAV up +83% from $1.39* to $2.54
*Adj to exc. non-controlling interests.
's gain......EXACTLY wht we saw in Q4, i.e. 50% of BTC's gain:
#BTC
up +165% from $10.8K to $28.6K$BRPHF NAV up +83% from $1.39* to $2.54
*Adj to exc. non-controlling interests.
And same approach obv yields a pretty reliable NAV as of today:
#BTC up +109% YTD from $28.6K to $59.9K
$BRPHF NAV up +55% from $2.54 to (say) $3.93
And in line with my NAV approach/tweets YTD, #KR1 NAV today is $223M (123.5p/share)...almost TWO THIRDS of #Galaxy's $359M NAV!
#BTC
up +109% YTD from $28.6K to $59.9K$BRPHF NAV up +55% from $2.54 to (say) $3.93
And in line with my NAV approach/tweets YTD, #KR1 NAV today is $223M (123.5p/share)...almost TWO THIRDS of #Galaxy's $359M NAV!
And now #Galaxy's broken $25+ & lks ready to blow MUCH HIGHER:
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/BRPHF?p=BRPHF&.tsrc=fin-srch
While #KR1's still tracing out the SAME #ascendingtriangle consolidation pattern:
https://www.aquis.eu/aquis-stock-exchange/member?securityidaqse=KR1
BUT tht leaves #KR1 on a 1.5 P/B vs. #Galaxy on a 6.7 P/B!?!
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/BRPHF?p=BRPHF&.tsrc=fin-srch
While #KR1's still tracing out the SAME #ascendingtriangle consolidation pattern:
https://www.aquis.eu/aquis-stock-exchange/member?securityidaqse=KR1
BUT tht leaves #KR1 on a 1.5 P/B vs. #Galaxy on a 6.7 P/B!?!
BUT BUT BUT... #fanboys be #biasing again! 
Which is pretty dumb, esp. when we look at some hard no's, 'cos if #Galaxy, #KR1 & ALL #crypto stks boast such incredible upside pot'l...
...why on earth wdn't you bet on the team/co tht's actually delivered ALREADY!?
Which is pretty dumb, esp. when we look at some hard no's, 'cos if #Galaxy, #KR1 & ALL #crypto stks boast such incredible upside pot'l...
...why on earth wdn't you bet on the team/co tht's actually delivered ALREADY!?
#Galaxy's initial NAV was $1.91...
...so, presuming a $3.93 NAV today, we're actually looking at a +106% cumulative gain!
Not bad at all...
EXCEPT for the fact tht #KR1 started out with a 0.67p NAV...for a +18,326% cumulative gain today!
...so, presuming a $3.93 NAV today, we're actually looking at a +106% cumulative gain!
Not bad at all...
EXCEPT for the fact tht #KR1 started out with a 0.67p NAV...for a +18,326% cumulative gain today!
BUT BUT BUT, tht's not fair...
#KR1's been around a lot longer than #Galaxy (2016 vs. 2018), so obviously we shd compare CAGRs...
...EXCEPT #KR1's actual +202% CAGR alone is almost double #Galaxy's total cumulative +106% gain!
#KR1's been around a lot longer than #Galaxy (2016 vs. 2018), so obviously we shd compare CAGRs...
...EXCEPT #KR1's actual +202% CAGR alone is almost double #Galaxy's total cumulative +106% gain!
Yep, #fanboys will throw some mysterious #Galaxy #secretsauce in the mix to justify such an absurd 6.7 vs. 1.5 P/B val'n spread.
EXCEPT I've written 1,000s of words abt #KR1's actual #secretsauce since 2017...
...and happily documented the resulting/incredible NAV gains since!
EXCEPT I've written 1,000s of words abt #KR1's actual #secretsauce since 2017...
...and happily documented the resulting/incredible NAV gains since!
And as #Munger (& #LiLu last night) will always remind us...
...it's not the price/multiple you pay for a stk tht matters, ultimately it's the #compounding, i.e. it's the actual #RoI the co has & will deliver/earn.
So it's simple, jst bet on the BEST..... #KR1!
...it's not the price/multiple you pay for a stk tht matters, ultimately it's the #compounding, i.e. it's the actual #RoI the co has & will deliver/earn.
So it's simple, jst bet on the BEST..... #KR1!
