Read on Twitter
While most of the people on my twitter feed are all about the next 5-10pts in ES and vanna/charm/gamma squeeze (or anything else which is the flavor of the month), very few look at a pretty big thing that can (and should) be alarming - China shadow banking
This "little" problem is something that unlike other crises, is an ongoing bubble-like train wrack that the CCP has to carefully deflate, so every few months they deleverage a bit more.
In 2015 they had to deleverage their stock market after a boom of margin retail accounts
In 2015 they had to deleverage their stock market after a boom of margin retail accounts
that sent their stocks to the moon (think today's US market on steroids). After that they had to devalue their currency, which global markets really didn't like.
After that they kept on letting thousands of companies to under in a controlled way, and occasionally drained
After that they kept on letting thousands of companies to under in a controlled way, and occasionally drained
the market (causing funding squeeze in CNH).
The last round of china deleveraging took a pretty heavy toll in the shape of Archegos Capital (for those who wonder how come this happens in a time when the US market is rallying).
The last round of china deleveraging took a pretty heavy toll in the shape of Archegos Capital (for those who wonder how come this happens in a time when the US market is rallying).
So why is all this should be interesting to us? I think that historically speaking, when sht hits the fan in the Asian market they tend to escalate quickly once the market narrative changes (mainly because most people don't pay attention to Asian markets until things become ugly)
Worth keeping an eye on the Asia-Pacific region and the different markets to gauge the changes in the dynamic of the different markets (I would look at all different aspects - FX, Rates, Credit, and Equities)
Just my two cents.
Just my two cents.
