I try not to think about politics or Brexit much now, but there’s little I’ve reflected more on than whether remain should have got behind a SM&CU Brexit.

I think that the idea of SM+CU was gone the moment ending Freedom of Movement became a central pillar of UKGov policy.
1/

Ending FoM was a totemic policy. No matter how much we argued (as I did in this article) that it was a reciprocal right, the ending of which would harm the UK and the welfare and prospects of its population, it appealed to many. Way too many.
2/ https://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/politics/in-defence-of-freedom-of-movement

Not least it appealed to government ministers and MPs desperate for a simple talking point in a sea of complexity, and a press of non-experts reporting them.

Once it was built up as a rallying cry and sacred shibboleth, there was no going back from it.
3/

Added to that, as we see in stark focus now, the NI trilemma could only be solved by the UK remaining in the Single Market *and* Customs Union. EFTA would not have been sufficient. That means no independent trade policy, another central pillar & sacred shibboleth of Brexiters.
4/

That also means no removal of the jurisdiction of the ECJ, so the EFTA-advocates’ brave defence of the independence of the EFTA court falls away as an argument, and a 3rd pillar of the Brexiter faith collapses.
5/

And what if it had, somehow, happened? I remember talking about it with @AlynSmith at the time, and his response was that “it would not survive first contact.” The systematic undermining of the Withdrawal Agreement and TCA negotiated *by brexiters* surely bears that out now.
6/

It’s not hard to imagine that the campaign for a referendum on leaving the SM and/or CU would be well underway and gathering steam by now, and that every action or new regulation would give it new howls of betrayal and ammo for the ERG and a tame press.
7/

As I said, what they themselves negotiated, extolled the virtues of, & won an election on already elicit those howls of betrayal and attempts to undermine that at times leave them teetering on the brink and may one destroy them. Why would a “remainers’ version” be immune?
8/

What we can’t know for sure of course is whether getting behind an SM+CU Brexit would have changed the outcome of the 2 elections that were held between the referendum and Brexit, and thus changed the likelihood of it as a sustainable outcome.
9/

In 2017, the UK got a minority government, with the main opposition running on a ticket of a form of soft Brexit. With tactical voting, there could have been a majority for a coalition led by it, but I don’t think it was remain’s position that meant that didn’t happen.
10/

In 2019 the game was up. Opposition parties would not work together. Johnson won a huge majority, and, even if the parties had worked together, as much of remain advocated, he may well have still been PM.
11/

This leaves the interim, minority government period, which is where many of those who argue Remain made a mistake in not adopting SM+CU as their objective is blameworthy.

Very few MPs though actually argued for a realistic version of SM+CU.
12/

Many wanted Single Market 2.0, or some other but did not put up a defence of freedom of movement or advocate the CU. Indeed, many supporters of EFTA or EFTA-like arrangements were fiercely opposed to the CU and attached to an independent trade policy.
13/

Labour’s official stance was a version that was so caveated and contorted (particularly on FoM and a CU) that it was totally unrealistic to think the EU would accept it.

Others wanted a CU, but opposed FoM.
14/

Maybe a remain change then might have helped coalesce this disparate band, but the conflicts between the various proposals and the various sacred shibboleths they tried to maintain make me at least think that would not have been straightforward.
15/

I don’t know for sure though. Someone I respect very, very much told me once that I’d regret rubbishing a Soft Brexit, and I’ve thought about that a hell of a lot since and still do.
16/

It’s abundantly obvious that a Brexit that put the UK in the SM and CU would have been better than what we have now. Maybe the risk of it not surviving was over-played? Maybe it was a risk worth taking for the sake of short-term stability, and, particularly, Northern Ireland?
17/

Reflection has brought 2 things into focus though. It was not just a question of remain backing it, then stuff, then the UK as the newest member of the EEA and in a shiny new CU, and it would not now be over and stable with everyone happy or even accepting it.
18/

I’m not trying to make a self-justification of my own and others’ positions here. You may still think remain made a mistake, but this is why I now don’t think it could have been different. That fight was, I think, already lost in autumn 2016 in the blinking of a speech.
19/

As @davidallengreen pointed out, Remain couldn’t win a referendum, 2 general elections or votes in the Commons, and couldn’t get a 2nd referendum. It also couldn’t unite the opposition, or get people to vote tactically. It couldn’t even unite itself sometimes.
20/

The idea remain could and should have done better, and might have made different, better decisions is perfectly reasonable. I will still reflect on the SM+CU position. Probably forever. The idea that Remain is the key group to blame for the shape of a Brexit is fanciful.
21/

This doesn’t mean that those who want a closer relationship with the EU, whether that’s rejoining or another form, should not get behind calls to rejoin the SM and CU now. It’ll take huge shifts to get even there, but the current realities and travails show it’s a necessity.
22/

Decisions have to be taken at the time, with the reality that is being faced at that time. The reality now is it’s the only alternative. The UK in the SM & a Customs Union would have been a much better outcome, but I just don’t think remainers could have made it happen.
23/23

PS, sorry for the rambling, unstructured thread. It’s a reflection of my long-Covid fogged brain, I’m afraid. This was an attempt to put those foggy thoughts into at least some sort of order. Back to the guitars, which are way more fun and way less confused or confusing.

PPS, I meant to at @MrsFmusic as I wasn’t going to post this thread once I’d written it, but seeing her tweet and others sparked me to. It’s basically a long way of saying what she said: https://twitter.com/mrsfmusic/status/1380905006291939330