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Exposing The Bias Of Ben Taylor, A Thread
Ben Taylor in recent years has seen a rise in popularity due to his breakdown of NBA players’ statistical impact throughout history, which he accomplishes by utilizing both advanced metrics & sampled game tape of each player. For those interested in learning more about...
...him, visit http://backpicks40.com and his YouTube channel, Thinking Basketball. Recently, Ben released a series of 20-30 minute videos explaining just how impactful 15 of the greatest players ever were. In reading his articles and after watching these videos, I couldn’t...
...help but notice that Ben seems to have both a bias for KG, as well as a bias against Duncan. While many may claim this is ridiculous to assume, I hope to show just how real this conclusion is in this very thread. To begin this discussion, it should be noted that Ben...
...uses a plethora of graphs to illustrate data on each historical player, & I’ve found that these graphs explicitly reveal Ben’s bias even more so than his typical analysis usually does. Specifically, his comparison of how Duncan & KG perform against strong vs weak defenses.
If @ElGee35 truly believed KG was just as good or better against strong defenses compared to Duncan, why not compare how each performed against weak & strong regular season AND playoff defenses in his sample (03-06 for KG, 01-03 for Duncan) in his latest peaks episode? Both...
...played the Lakers numerous times in the playoffs (KG faced the Lakers in 03 & 04, Duncan faced the Lakers in 01, 02, & 03), so how they fared against what Ben called “underrated Lakers defenses” should be entirely relevant, right? Wanna see where things get hilariously biased?
In his video on KG’s peak, Ben actually used an entirely different graph comparing how Duncan & KG fared against strong vs weak defenses. Notice anything strange? Different sample size of years & only regular season considered in the 2nd graph, sure. But also, apparently...
...KG now goes from a player who’s scoring predictably drops off against stronger defenses in the first graph, to now illogically IMPROVING against stronger defenses in the 2nd graph. This can only mean one thing: @ElGee35 uses biased sampling to undermine Duncan’s...
...playoff scoring & his ability to hold up against stronger defenses as compared to KG’s. If this weren’t true, why change the sampled years? In the graph looking at regular season (RS) & postseason (PS) scoring, Ben uses a sample of 01-05 for Duncan. This is quite...
...odd, unless you understand the context of Duncan’s career. In 2004 & 2005, Duncan suffered injuries that sidelined him for more games than he’d ever sat for any season in his career at that time (most missed games was 8 RS games + 3 PS games in 2000), missing 13 RS...
...games in 2004, & 16 RS games in 2005. These injuries not only sidelined Duncan, but in combination with the lateral meniscus tear he suffered in his left knee in 2000, started to take away more & more of his athleticism & slow him down. The 2004 injuries included an...
...irritation of the left patellofemoral joint, where the thigh bone connects to the knee, which sidelined Duncan for at least 9 games. In 2005, the most serious injuries Duncan suffered were a sprained right ankle at the end of the RS (occurred on 3/20/2005, missed 12 RS...
...games, played limited minutes in the last 4 games of the RS) as well as a 2ND ankle sprain (this time his left ankle) in Game 6 of the WCSF vs the Sonics. In case it’s not obvious, this means Duncan played in 2 rounds of the 2005 playoffs on ONE sprained ankle, then played...
...in another 2 rounds of the 2005 playoffs on TWO sprained ankles. It’s hard to imagine that Ben Taylor wasn’t aware of these given the amount of research on each player he’s done, which leads me to believe he chose the sample sizes in his graphs for a specific...
...reason. Namely, to make Duncan look worse by including two seasons where Duncan was hampered by injuries in a large number of regular season games (which is significant because RS games make up most of the sampled data Ben would use when comparing Duncan’s performance...
...against strong vs weak defenses). A less significant question (given the fact that PS makes up a smaller proportion of the overall sample size used), but still important to address, is why did Ben leave out the playoffs in the 2nd graph? Quite simply, Ben knows KG’s scoring...
...nosedives in the playoffs against similar competition as that faced by Duncan, which Ben himself has explained is due to KG not having as resilient of a scoring arsenal as Duncan (great post play holds up well in the playoffs), less physical strength than Duncan (to power...
...in for easier scoring in the paint), & KG’s over-reliance on jump shots. In his video on KG’s peak, Ben makes (another) excuse for KG that his PS scoring likely dropped due to fatigue, as he was playing so many minutes in the RS & PS. Specifically, KG played 40 MPG in the...
...RS & 44 MPG in the PS in the 2003 & 2004 seasons. This is a strange excuse, given that Duncan played 40 MPG in the regular season & 42 MPG in the postseason in 2002 & 2003, which also included deeper playoff runs than KG, & yet somehow Duncan doesn’t get similar leeway from...
...Ben Taylor. Granted, it’s possible there’s more to Ben’s argument than just the MPG each played in their 2 peak seasons, but if there is, why not explain it in his near 30 minute video breakdown of each of these legends? Perhaps he’ll be able to provide an answer in due time.
