I made a couple of threads earlier in the season on our progress. The first was on 6 November. I thought our results were around par. https://twitter.com/WindyCOYS/status/1324628896176869378">https://twitter.com/WindyCOYS...
The second was was on 29 January. I felt bad performances were now outnumbering good performances. https://twitter.com/WindyCOYS/status/1355128203128565767">https://twitter.com/WindyCOYS...
Since that last thread on 29 January, we& #39;ve beaten: West Brom, Wolfsberger (x2), Burnley, Fulham, Crystal Palace, Dinamo Zagreb, & Aston Villa.

We& #39;ve lost to: Brighton, Chelsea, Everton (AET), Manchester City, West Ham, Arsenal, & Dinamo Zagreb.

And we drew against Newcastle.
On 29 January, FiveThirtyEight gave us a 29% chance of qualifying for the CL. Now it gives us a 17% chance.

Understat has us 10th on expected points.

Since we beat Arsenal in December to go top, our points tally has us as close to the bottom 3 as it does top 4. 25 from 57.
We have a Cup Final in a fortnight, our first domestic final since 2014/15. We are also 3 points off 4th. This could still be an objectively successful season in terms of results. I don& #39;t think it will be. But, aside from what I think will happen, there are deeper considerations.
It feels like we have regressed. In fact, it doesn& #39;t just feel like we have regressed: we have regressed. With thanks to @bojochris for the data viz showing our expected goals differential using an 18-game rolling average.
The drop-off under Pochettino was widely known & has been attributed to a variety of factors. The factor most fans agree on is the lack of squad turnover including, crucially, not replacing Dembélé, a lynchpin in the heart of our CM. Performance has continued to decline under JM.
It has continued to decline despite:
- the acquisition of Højbjerg; finally, a competent Dembélé replacement.
- Ndombele acclimatising to the PL (data from FBref).
- Kane getting an enforced rest & putting in his best xG/90 performance since 2017/18 & his best xA/90 perf ever.
I believe that these factors mean we are now *significantly* under-performing on the pitch. We have corrected some of the underlying issues which led to the decline under Pochettino & yet have not seen any sort of progress in the underlying data.
There are still some issues - notably at CB & at RB. JM has chosen to play a style of football that exacerbates those issues, requiring us to make a high volume of defensive actions. He has also chosen to only select Alderweireld in 18/30 matches.
But it& #39;s not just the declining performance or the lack of tangible improvement that cause concern about the direction of travel. It& #39;s the nature of some of the defeats, especially Dinamo Zagreb, Arsenal and West Ham that. The approach against Arsenal was particularly confusing.
There& #39;s more subjective stuff too causing division:

- the style of football; some fans claim to not be bothered if it means that we win, for others it& #39;s crucial;
- the feuding between JM & key players like Dele, Bale, now Alderweireld; some fans blame the players, some blame JM.
Personally, I think the style/approach is not just unattractive, but an ineffective use of our players. And, personally, I think the exclusion of Dele and now Bale and Alderweireld have been to the detriment of the team & its outputs.
Obvious statement alert: the remaining nine matches will likely determine whether JM will remain in post for (the start of) next season; winning a cup & finishing top 4 will almost certainly see him keep his job. This then has an obvious knock-on effect on transfer strategy, etc.
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