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I made a couple of threads earlier in the season on our progress. The first was on 6 November. I thought our results were around par. https://twitter.com/WindyCOYS/status/1324628896176869378
The second was was on 29 January. I felt bad performances were now outnumbering good performances. https://twitter.com/WindyCOYS/status/1355128203128565767
Since that last thread on 29 January, we've beaten: West Brom, Wolfsberger (x2), Burnley, Fulham, Crystal Palace, Dinamo Zagreb, & Aston Villa.
We've lost to: Brighton, Chelsea, Everton (AET), Manchester City, West Ham, Arsenal, & Dinamo Zagreb.
And we drew against Newcastle.
We've lost to: Brighton, Chelsea, Everton (AET), Manchester City, West Ham, Arsenal, & Dinamo Zagreb.
And we drew against Newcastle.
On 29 January, FiveThirtyEight gave us a 29% chance of qualifying for the CL. Now it gives us a 17% chance.
Understat has us 10th on expected points.
Since we beat Arsenal in December to go top, our points tally has us as close to the bottom 3 as it does top 4. 25 from 57.
Understat has us 10th on expected points.
Since we beat Arsenal in December to go top, our points tally has us as close to the bottom 3 as it does top 4. 25 from 57.
We have a Cup Final in a fortnight, our first domestic final since 2014/15. We are also 3 points off 4th. This could still be an objectively successful season in terms of results. I don't think it will be. But, aside from what I think will happen, there are deeper considerations.
It feels like we have regressed. In fact, it doesn't just feel like we have regressed: we have regressed. With thanks to @bojochris for the data viz showing our expected goals differential using an 18-game rolling average.
The drop-off under Pochettino was widely known & has been attributed to a variety of factors. The factor most fans agree on is the lack of squad turnover including, crucially, not replacing Dembélé, a lynchpin in the heart of our CM. Performance has continued to decline under JM.
It has continued to decline despite:
- the acquisition of Højbjerg; finally, a competent Dembélé replacement.
- Ndombele acclimatising to the PL (data from FBref).
- Kane getting an enforced rest & putting in his best xG/90 performance since 2017/18 & his best xA/90 perf ever.
- the acquisition of Højbjerg; finally, a competent Dembélé replacement.
- Ndombele acclimatising to the PL (data from FBref).
- Kane getting an enforced rest & putting in his best xG/90 performance since 2017/18 & his best xA/90 perf ever.
I believe that these factors mean we are now *significantly* under-performing on the pitch. We have corrected some of the underlying issues which led to the decline under Pochettino & yet have not seen any sort of progress in the underlying data.
There are still some issues - notably at CB & at RB. JM has chosen to play a style of football that exacerbates those issues, requiring us to make a high volume of defensive actions. He has also chosen to only select Alderweireld in 18/30 matches.
But it's not just the declining performance or the lack of tangible improvement that cause concern about the direction of travel. It's the nature of some of the defeats, especially Dinamo Zagreb, Arsenal and West Ham that. The approach against Arsenal was particularly confusing.
There's more subjective stuff too causing division:
- the style of football; some fans claim to not be bothered if it means that we win, for others it's crucial;
- the feuding between JM & key players like Dele, Bale, now Alderweireld; some fans blame the players, some blame JM.
- the style of football; some fans claim to not be bothered if it means that we win, for others it's crucial;
- the feuding between JM & key players like Dele, Bale, now Alderweireld; some fans blame the players, some blame JM.
Personally, I think the style/approach is not just unattractive, but an ineffective use of our players. And, personally, I think the exclusion of Dele and now Bale and Alderweireld have been to the detriment of the team & its outputs.
Obvious statement alert: the remaining nine matches will likely determine whether JM will remain in post for (the start of) next season; winning a cup & finishing top 4 will almost certainly see him keep his job. This then has an obvious knock-on effect on transfer strategy, etc.
