What's the state of the pandemic in the US?

In last month

B.1.1.7 and other variants have become dominant

90M vaccines have gone into arms

Cases are up about 20%

Here's the key graph for US since Feb 1

Its a Rorschach test

I see it as mostly good news

Thread

Obviously state of pandemic varies widely from state to state (e.g. Michigan)

But here are the 5 largest states in US (by pop)

35% of Americans live here

NY high, slowly drifting down

FL, PA rising slowly

CA, TX low, staying there

And a few other things have happened

77% of people >65 have had at least 1 shot

44% of all adults too

And given this, I think we are likely to avoid a serious 4th wave

That doesn't mean we won't see spikes (see Michigan)

Or that we are at Herd Immunity (we aren't)

3/5

But everyday we don't see infections accelerating makes a serious 4th wave less likely

And we are about 4 weeks away from every adult who wants a vaccine getting their first shot (will vary by state)

At which point, the chances of a major national wave gets VERY low

4/5

So its all about the next few weeks

If you're not vaccinated -- be extra vigilant. You don't want to be infected days before you get the shot

And lets really focus hard on improving access in rural communities and communities of color

5/6

And lets engage skeptics to help address concerns about safety and effectiveness

To bring more folks on board to the benefits of being vaccinated

As we head into May, June, pandemic won't be over

But case numbers should decline further

With a really good summer to follow

Fin