If anyone at this point things that school openings haven't resulted in a surge in cases among school-age children, I'd urge them to look at the latest ONS data. There's been an *8-fold* increase in positivity in Scotland among children since schools opened on the 22nd Feb. https://twitter.com/dgurdasani1/status/1380830617735208961

Recent trends less reliable, so need to be interpreted with caution, as outlined. We should expect to see positivity declines in line with Easter break - but should prepare for surges again once schools-re-open. Urgent need for mitigations in both primary & 2ndary schools.

Thanks to @BibblerBrizzy for pointing out that Easter break in Scotland started on the 2nd April and *not* on 26th March, as indicated in the graph for Scotland (sorry about the error - the 26th was the start for much of England).

Regarding recent plateauing and declining trends - this is a regular feature of ONS data, as discussed here, making very recent modelled trends unreliable. https://twitter.com/ChrisGiles_/status/1319620517796741120