The pandemic incumbency advantage: what does it really mean?

Every government in Australia that has sought re-election in the last year has been comprehensively returned:
ACT, NT - clear wins
Qld - decisive win
WA - thumping win

Tassie votes on 1 May.

(1/6)
A federal election will be held in the next 12 months. Later rather than sooner you'd guess from this week. But that's up to Scott Morrison.

Many think incumbent governments can't be beaten during a crisis. I don't agree, and here's why...

(2/6)
The victories of Annastacia Palaszczuk, Michael Gunner, Andrew Barr, and of course Mark McGowan were impressive, but are diminished by analysis that says they only won because they were already there.

(3/6)
They won because they are good governments.

They won because of their willingness to harness the power of government to protect their communities.

A willingness to use the strong state systems at their disposal to make sure everyone was looked after.

(4/6)
The Morrison Government does not share this strength.

❌ Dragged kicking and screaming into JobKeeper, and then cutting it off too soon
❌ A budget that failed those doing it hardest - women
❌ Challenging state border closures
❌ Stuffing up the vaccine rollout

(5/6)
Labor has an opportunity to show that it knows how to use government for the better. With that, it can win.

All of this is much better explained in an article I wrote for @challengeAU special ALP Conference edition. (6/6)

Check it out here: https://www.challengemag.org/post/labor-needs-to-win-and-we-can
You can follow @ryanbatchelor.
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