Are we heading into phase 2 of this rally?
Some thoughts on the
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Some thoughts on the
So.
Spring is here, vaccines are aplenty, growth is booming and the S&P just clocked its best 12-month return in history.
Lots of reasons to feel good here.
Spring is here, vaccines are aplenty, growth is booming and the S&P just clocked its best 12-month return in history.
Lots of reasons to feel good here.
BUT.
The game is changing.
We& #39;re going from a low expectations, high growth environment to a high expectations, (probably) high growth environment.
The game is changing.
We& #39;re going from a low expectations, high growth environment to a high expectations, (probably) high growth environment.
I mean, look at this.
S&P 500 earnings beat estimates by 10 percentage points or more the last three quarters.
That probably won& #39;t happen again with ~16% YOY growth expected for Q1.
S&P 500 earnings beat estimates by 10 percentage points or more the last three quarters.
That probably won& #39;t happen again with ~16% YOY growth expected for Q1.
High growth is a good thing.
But a high bar for growth could = higher disappointment ahead.
But a high bar for growth could = higher disappointment ahead.
Add in the fact that volumes could drop off this summer with everybody and their dang mother getting out of house, and we could see a wandering market over the next few months.
We don& #39;t think there& #39;s anything nefarious brewing.
It may just be time for everyone to lower their expectations for the market.
And we could be wrong. I mean, this market has some serious momentum to it!
It may just be time for everyone to lower their expectations for the market.
And we could be wrong. I mean, this market has some serious momentum to it!
Bottom line? Weâre still optimistic on the market, but donât be shocked if this rally turns a corner and eases off a little.
Nothing nefarious. Just a little breather after a sprint-like recovery.
Nothing nefarious. Just a little breather after a sprint-like recovery.
Thatâs phase 2.
Anyways, thereâs more to life now than being glued to a screen.
And less time devoted to market-watching = more time to have a hot vax summer
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Anyways, thereâs more to life now than being glued to a screen.
And less time devoted to market-watching = more time to have a hot vax summer
Want more of our thoughts on this?
Youâre in luck. @justLBell just released her Q2 outlook! https://www.ally.com/do-it-right/trends/stock-market-outlook-april-2021/">https://www.ally.com/do-it-rig...
Youâre in luck. @justLBell just released her Q2 outlook! https://www.ally.com/do-it-right/trends/stock-market-outlook-april-2021/">https://www.ally.com/do-it-rig...