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1/15
2 - 3 years.
Minimum.
If you are looking at investing in a startup project, or a token, that's how long at *minimum* you should expect it to take for the price of the token (or share) to rise based on real value.
2 - 3 years.
Minimum.
If you are looking at investing in a startup project, or a token, that's how long at *minimum* you should expect it to take for the price of the token (or share) to rise based on real value.
2/15
Before that time, any value of a token is not reflect of real value.
It's reflective of potential value.
20% patient investors waiting for the future.
80% short term investors buying on hype, memes and marketing.
Before that time, any value of a token is not reflect of real value.
It's reflective of potential value.
20% patient investors waiting for the future.
80% short term investors buying on hype, memes and marketing.
3/15
Teams that lean into nothing but short term plans, or overflow focus on hype and memes instead of building a functioning ecosystem, won't last.
We've seen it every cycle.
Teams that lean into nothing but short term plans, or overflow focus on hype and memes instead of building a functioning ecosystem, won't last.
We've seen it every cycle.
4/15
The flashy meme, cult-like projects that skyrocket each cycle are almost no where to be seen in the next one.
The patient, quiet, project oriented projects are the >$1B entities next time around.
The flashy meme, cult-like projects that skyrocket each cycle are almost no where to be seen in the next one.
The patient, quiet, project oriented projects are the >$1B entities next time around.
5/15
That is not to say there isn't money to be made in mania. But, it's not real value.
It's a house of cards, ready to crumble from the slightest gust of wind.
That is not to say there isn't money to be made in mania. But, it's not real value.
It's a house of cards, ready to crumble from the slightest gust of wind.
6/15
In 2016-2018, I invested in lots of different crypto companies and token projects and heard the HFSP narrative from people that were investing heavily into the supposed "blue chip projects" of that day.
In 2016-2018, I invested in lots of different crypto companies and token projects and heard the HFSP narrative from people that were investing heavily into the supposed "blue chip projects" of that day.
7/15
After many years of holding and accumulating, many of those projects are finally starting to come to fruition now *years* later.
After many years of holding and accumulating, many of those projects are finally starting to come to fruition now *years* later.
8/15
The popular advice back then would have a portfolio with Dash, NEM, IOTA, Stratis, BitShares, Bytecoin, Steem, Waves, Iconomi, ByteBall and Veritaseum.
The popular advice back then would have a portfolio with Dash, NEM, IOTA, Stratis, BitShares, Bytecoin, Steem, Waves, Iconomi, ByteBall and Veritaseum.
9/15
One of the fascinating things about investing, is that for you to be right in a profitable manner, it means that >51% of dollars investing against you have to be wrong.
One of the fascinating things about investing, is that for you to be right in a profitable manner, it means that >51% of dollars investing against you have to be wrong.
10/15
In VC to get a good valuation, not only do other VCs need to be wrong and pass, but other startups need to be wrong in their product market fit.
In VC to get a good valuation, not only do other VCs need to be wrong and pass, but other startups need to be wrong in their product market fit.
11/15
Stated simply, for you to be right, the vast majority of other people need to be not right.
(In some cases they don't need to be wrong. They just need to miss the opportunity.)
Stated simply, for you to be right, the vast majority of other people need to be not right.
(In some cases they don't need to be wrong. They just need to miss the opportunity.)
12/15
My long term strategy a few years back was to buy product focused projects on a 3 year time horizon. That's worked out pretty well.
My long term strategy a few years back was to buy product focused projects on a 3 year time horizon. That's worked out pretty well.
13/15
My short term strategy has been looking at projects that have great funding or great treasuries and have been quietly building for years, ready to pivot and re-emerge. Risky and more moderate returns but a short horizon.
My short term strategy has been looking at projects that have great funding or great treasuries and have been quietly building for years, ready to pivot and re-emerge. Risky and more moderate returns but a short horizon.
14/15
But my strategy continues to be to look for teams that are design, product and strategy focused, that are going to quietly build and execute, and know that 3~ years from now they'll still be building.
But my strategy continues to be to look for teams that are design, product and strategy focused, that are going to quietly build and execute, and know that 3~ years from now they'll still be building.
15/15
Markets are famous for moving money from the impatient to the patient.
So ask yourself, if you strip away all the memes, the cultish shilling and the hype. Who is going to just steadily keep building for years to come?
Who can you hold for 3 years confidently unblinking?
Markets are famous for moving money from the impatient to the patient.
So ask yourself, if you strip away all the memes, the cultish shilling and the hype. Who is going to just steadily keep building for years to come?
Who can you hold for 3 years confidently unblinking?
