In my last paper I write about #Russia the #EU relations. I think that Russia has recognised that, as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, the EU would be weaker. That would allow Russia to undermine its position in the world and make it difficult to coordinate with the U.S. https://twitter.com/PISM_Poland/status/1380502151974256640

2/5/ #Russia has decided that any improvement in relations with the #EU will not take place soon, but that the confrontation should bring tangible benefits - internaly (elections) and externaly #Donbas #NordStream2 #SputnikV

3/5 In the face of Russian pressure, supporters of the dialogue with Russia (France and Germany) or countries benefiting from cooperation with Russia (Hungary) will not pressure that country on democratisation nor protection of human rights, including the Navalny’s release.

4/5 Russia also counts on #EU passiveness in the Eastern Partnership countries, especially in Belarus and Ukraine. This allows the Russian authorities to increase pressure on EaP state authorities, for example, through armed provocations (e.g., in #Donbas)

5/5/ Russia will continue to accuse the #EU of interfering in its internal affairs. To fight these external influences, the Russian authorities will keep repressing their fellow citizens, for example, by designating various groups as a “foreign agent”

Anti-West rhetoric favours the legitimacy of the #Russia authorities > pro-government media present as defenders of conservative values in a supposed clash with a “spoiled West" > fewer Russians feel European—from 52% of respondents in 2008, to only 29% in 2020 CC: @anders_aslund