Since pandemic started, USA dumped more than $5T on the American economy. GS economist Blake Taylor thinks there’s a good chance we haven’t seen the last of these fiscal spending packages and will see 1 or 2 more infrastructure spending bills.

Beyond that, he sees the Congress going back to craft new spending plans, particularly if the economy recovers in, as JP says, an uneven fashion. Congress & Fed are committed to easy money policies, & that will be a big factor in American economic expansion in the years to come.

Foreigners don’t want US Treasuries but pile into a stock market that keeps rising as Fed pushes down bond yields. China's stock market has stalled. Shanghai is underperforming SPX.

US trade deficit nearly doubled during Covid, reaching a record annual rate of nearly $1T. Foreign investors bought $400B of US equities & $500B of US agency securities during the 12 months through January, but sold $600B of Treasuries and $100B of corporate bonds.

So the Fed buys $4 trillion of Treasury securities & pushes the after-inflation yield below zero. That pushes investors into stocks. Foreigners don’t want US Treasuries at negative real yields, but they pile into a stock market that keeps rising.

If stocks stop rising and foreigners stop buying, USA may have to sell more bonds, yields have to rise hurting stocks further. It is all a macro trade. But we may think we are smart in picking growth or value stocks, disruptive this or that, high PE, P/R, IPO/SPAC.

A new survey by MNP Ltd. has found that 53% of Canadian respondents said they are $200 or less away from not being able to meet all of their monthly bills or debt obligations. This marks a 5-year high in the agency's consumer debt index & marks a 10-point jump from a Dec survey