Read on Twitter
1. This 6 minute video summarises the findings in our new report exposing the "1 in 3 people with Covid-19 have no symptoms" claim:
2. The full report is here: http://www.doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.33939.60968
3. And here is a blog post containing a summary of the report: https://probabilityandlaw.blogspot.com/2021/04/smashing-1-in-3-people-with-covid-19.html
4. Key findings for the particular period and location analysed:
- The “1 in 3” claim is a massive exaggeration. At most 1 in 18 with the virus had no symptoms
- Number of 'cases' was exaggerated by at least 80%.
- The “1 in 3” claim is a massive exaggeration. At most 1 in 18 with the virus had no symptoms
- Number of 'cases' was exaggerated by at least 80%.
5. But things to note:
“1 in 3 people who have the virus have no symptoms”
is NOT the same as
“1 in 3 people who have no symptoms have the virus”
(assuming they're the same is the fallacy of the transposed conditional)
“1 in 3 people who have the virus have no symptoms”
is NOT the same as
“1 in 3 people who have no symptoms have the virus”
(assuming they're the same is the fallacy of the transposed conditional)
6. Nor is it the same as
“1 in 3 people who test positive for the virus have no symptoms”
In fact, because of false positive PCR tests, our analysis indicate that this claim was approximately true
“1 in 3 people who test positive for the virus have no symptoms”
In fact, because of false positive PCR tests, our analysis indicate that this claim was approximately true
Moreover this story today is also likely to be accurate because, as infection rates go down, false positives means the proportion of people testing positive who have no symptoms will increase https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9449319/More-HALF-people-test-positive-Covid-no-symptoms.html
