Hysteresis strikes back! The view that deep recessions may damage future productive capacity, e.g. by leading firms to reduce investment in innovation, is gaining more and more traction in the policy debate (chapter 2 of April 2021 IMF WEO, https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2021/html/ecb.sp210327~7b65e6526e.en.html).
I find this fascinating, because when I was in grad school (already more than 10 years ago!) I was taught that business cycles and productivity growth are two independent phenomena, which could be studied in isolation. But then the Great Recession happened...
and triggered a wave of new research reviving the Keynesian growth approach to economic fluctuations and productivity growth. For those interested, here is a selected, and admittedly very partial, review.
change radically our view of how the economy works. For instance, pessimistic animal spirit might push the economy into a stagnation trap (low demand+low growth), without any self-equilibrating force to restore growth, which may last until drastic policy interventions are taken.
What about the future of this research program? Two ideas. First, we need more empirical evidence on how changes in aggregate demand affect firms' technology choices. Some insights come from the trade literature https://www.cemfi.es/~bustos/Trade_Exports_Technology.pdf, but more is to be done.
Second, the international dimension. Knowledge spillovers across countries means that hysteresis effects may lead to international coordination failures. In recent work with @BenignoGianluca and @mw_econ we have started to think about these issues ( https://crei.cat/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/GFRC.pdf), but
many interesting questions are open. To conclude, here are a few researchers contributing to this program @MichaSchmoeller @sanjayrajsingh @Albert_Queralto @pedm @josebammartinez @RidderMaarten @mw_econ @BenignoGianluca @AntonioFatas @GuidoCozzi @DBrizhatyuk
You can follow @LucaFornaro3.
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