In 2016, the Treasury said the short-term impact of voting for Brexit and triggering Article 50 would cause an immediate recession, a plunge in house prices, a spike in unemployment and knock 3.6% off GDP within 2 years 2/ https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/524967/hm_treasury_analysis_the_immediate_economic_impact_of_leaving_the_eu_web.pdf">https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/governmen...
This prediction was well overblown. Triggering Article 50 was delayed to March 2017, and GDP, employment levels and house prices had all improved 2 years on from the referendum 3/
The government& #39;s pro-Remain leaflet sent to all homes in April 2016 said a vote for Brexit would mean an increase in living costs (weaker pound making imported goods more expensive). This came true 4/
The Treasury& #39;s long-term forecast for the impact of Brexit back in 2016 was the economy being ~5%-8% smaller within 15 years, compared to staying in the EU. The OBR now says it& #39;ll be about 4% smaller, and GDP is already down 1.4% since the referendum 5/
The government& #39;s Remain leaflet also said Brexit would increase costs for businesses and make exports harder. This has come true 6/ https://twitter.com/lizzzburden/status/1348911168002412545">https://twitter.com/lizzzburd...
The Leave campaign didn& #39;t make such specific predictions about the economic benefits of Brexit -- save for the famous pledge to re-direct £350m to the NHS each week. Here& #39;s how that& #39;s going... 9/
The £350m claim was always too large, because Britain& #39;s net contribution was more like £250m once you& #39;d factored in its rebate. Plus it got a significant chunk back through EU public sector spending.. 10/
And while Theresa May& #39;s government announced an extra £394m per week for the NHS in real terms from 2023, it won& #39;t be paid for by cost savings on EU membership. Brexit& #39;s negative effect on GDP and the hit to tax receipts will be greater than the saving on EU contributions 12/
So, 100 days of Brexit and the economic picture is fairly clear. Many short-term predictions were too strong, but we& #39;ve since seen a negative effect on trade and growth. The pandemic has overshadowed much of it. Big test will come when businesses are all open... 13/
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