New Holyrood projection (including all post-Alba Party launch polling)

Core projection:

SNP majority of 3
Pro-independence majority of 19 (1/5)

If an election were held today, the SNP would be on course for their respective best showings since the advent of devolution (2/5)

Scottish Labour, despite Anas Sarwar's strong performances so far, remain set to lose their three constituency seats. The SNP are also narrow favourites to win Ayr, Edinburgh Central, and Aberdeenshire West (3/5)

The SNP's win % by 'marginal' seat (seat with >20% chance of gaining):

Dumbarton - 83%
Edin Southern - 71%
East Lothian - 69%
Ayr - 60%
Edin Central - 56%
Abnshire West - 54%
Galloway & West Dumfries - 45%
Dumfriesshire - 44%
Eastwood - 44%
Edin Western - 34%
NE Fife - 23%
(4/5)

Lots of very fine margins on the regional list, as ever. List seat 7 in H&I could go Tory, Green, or to Andy Wightman (though it's impossible to measure his support through polling). Alba have a <50% of winning seats on their current polling average (5/5)