So SPI-M released their report on the next wave of COVID armageddon. It's a little weird so strap on your cognitive dissonance specs to take it all in. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975909/S1182_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_of_easing_roadmap_step_2_restrictions.pdf

In their forecast, the key metrics of hospitalisations and deaths are dominated (60-70%) by those who are fully vaccinated. Yeah, no typo. Because vaccine failure in the most at-risk where uptake is high will be more serious than susceptibility of the lower-risk unvaccinated.

Repeat after me: "This is not the result of vaccines being ineffective, merely uptake being so high". What??

Other than that, it's a homage to the new 2020's defintition of immunity that can ONLY be achieved through vaccination.

The continued talk of "control" of the virus is both arrogant and stupid at the same time. I am yet to see any credible analysis showing the success of any major intervention or behavious changes. Not surprising really, when this is a nosocomial issue, not a community one.

Statements like this "Maintaining baseline measures to reduce transmission once restrictions are lifted is almost certain to save many lives and minimise the threat to hospital capacity." have absolutely no place in a credible scientific analysis without data to support them.

And this is just plain nonsense given the plethora of irreufable evidence around the world of seasonality being the most dominant factor in reduced transmission.

and never mind the fact that so many other states and contries have opened up fully without any increase in transmission, hospitalisation or death whatsoever. No, let's stick with the plan, I mean model.