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1/As COVID recedes, the world is going to remember that it was in a state of unrest before the virus struck -- and that that unrest never really went away. https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-great-protest-wave
2/In 2019 we struggled to come up with a single unified explanation for why practically the whole world was breaking out in massive street demonstrations.
3/One theory was that the protests were a general revolt against economic inequality, and against government policies like taxes and and fee hikes that exacerbated it. https://theconversation.com/2019-was-a-year-of-global-unrest-spurred-by-anger-at-rising-inequality-and-2020-is-likely-to-be-worse-128384
4/Another theory was that new technologies -- especially Twitter -- had simply made it easier to spread outrage about stuff, in addition to making it easier to organize decentralized protests.
http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2019/02/book-review-revolt-of-public-by-martin.html
http://noahpinionblog.blogspot.com/2019/02/book-review-revolt-of-public-by-martin.html
5/And yet another theory was that the protests were a general revolt against authoritarianism.
At first I didn't embrace this theory, but after a second year of unrest, I am coming around.
At first I didn't embrace this theory, but after a second year of unrest, I am coming around.
6/There is a darkness creeping over our world.
Democracy and freedom have been in retreat for a decade and a half.
https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2020/leaderless-struggle-democracy
Democracy and freedom have been in retreat for a decade and a half.
https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2020/leaderless-struggle-democracy
7/This is not just about the rising strength of illiberal powers like China and Russia.
Many traditional bastions of liberalism, like the U.S. and India, are also becoming significantly less liberal.
Many traditional bastions of liberalism, like the U.S. and India, are also becoming significantly less liberal.
8/Freedom House characterizes the protests as a "leaderless struggle for democracy", and I think this is basically right. https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/2020/leaderless-struggle-democracy
9/I think the creeping darkness is the thing that unifies most of the protest movements.
There is simply a general feeling that the world is being run by the wrong people. And that general feeling makes people more likely to kick out against their local authoritarians.
There is simply a general feeling that the world is being run by the wrong people. And that general feeling makes people more likely to kick out against their local authoritarians.
10/That leaderless popular struggle intensified in 2020, despite the pandemic.
11/In the post I went and took stock of 15 different protest movements, to see how they fared.
The more free a country was, the more likely it was to acquiesce to protesters' demands, and the less likely it was to use deadly violence against protesters.
The more free a country was, the more likely it was to acquiesce to protesters' demands, and the less likely it was to use deadly violence against protesters.
12/The problem with this is that liberalism is waning.
Trump, Modi, and other authoritarian-populist leaders resisted protest movements more than other leaders of America and India probably would have.
Trump, Modi, and other authoritarian-populist leaders resisted protest movements more than other leaders of America and India probably would have.
