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#FPLMatchups #GW31: Scouting Jota for buyers & Gundo & Raph for sellers
+Little Prince Pick of the Week
Welcome back to FPL Matchups; my weekly think piece where I use my coaching lens to explore matchups in the #PL to gain insight to navigate our #FPL decisions.
#FPLCommunity
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GW31 was supposed to be the big fixture swinger wildcard lovefest. Then we learned about a DGW & potential future DGWs & blank game weeks, and there seemed to be a collective shrug of the shoulders and acceptance that, as the FPL maxim goes, ‘we move on.’
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Moving on to this GW, however, involves some big decisions for managers. Jota is clearly the bell of the ball, but what I want to look at is the players being sold for him.
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For this, our reference is @FPLNima's weekly Transfer Trends - https://twitter.com/FPLNima/status/1380191010987335684?s=20. This brilliant snapshot of which way the transfer currents are flowing helps us be mindful of trends we don’t want to miss and opportunities where we can strategically fight the current and
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go in a different direction. Here is a glimpse from our #NetThatHaul YouTube show and podcast -The FPL Compass.

It should come as no surprise that similarly priced Raphinha (difficult upcoming fixtures) and Gundogan (rotation, emphasis on UCL) are the main players being sold
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for Jota. And Bale, of course Bale.
The price makes these the simplest moves, but the simplicity is not a reason, in and of itself, to take action. So, back by popular demand, I took a look at footage to see if we can learn something more about the players.
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For FPL, we are more interested in how good he is when LIV have possession.
@ WOL
Jota’s first attacking output since he returned from injury came against his former side. Before the goal, however, I want to begin with Jota’s awareness and ability to always find space.
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This first play immediately shows Jota in good space, highlighted in green, in a very dangerous area of the field. Robertson is about to pass to Mane which alerts Coady to the danger of Jota.

We then see how the play has developed as Mane has the ball at the end line.
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Coady has been forced to stay b/t Mane’s passing lane to Salah, and his passing lane to Jota. Boly is tracking Salah, but there is still a small corridor for Mane to complete that pass. An easier pass imo is the one to Jota. We can see how Jota’s movement has kept him
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a good distance from the three players surrounding him. Unfortunately, Mane’s poor season is highlighted in this play as he tries to make the more difficult pass to Salah and ends up hitting the ball too close to Patricio who collects it.
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The next play shows the goal. The combination of the front 3 in this goal is impressive, reminding us of the Liverpool of the past couple of seasons. Following the black line from midfield, this one-touch passing combination slices the Wolves defense effortlessly.
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Jota’s finish is equally remarkable as he lowers his right knee and drags his left foot through the ball to slip it near post while Patricio is leaning lft.
@ ARS
I’m honestly concerned Klopp’s time may have come. Not starting Jota knowing how vulnerable the Arsenal back line
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is when pressured is shocking. Jota’s influence was felt almost immediately when he scored his first goal. The play starts w/ Milner’s driving run as he plays a short outlet to Jota. Jota immediately attracts the attention of the 2 CDMs, opening the field for Firmino,
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who is about to receive the ball. Also notice how Firmino’s movement allows Salah to come more central, which in turn opens up the field for TAA to join the attack.

Jota immediately on the move again occupying the space being left by the 2 CDMs. He also has an eye on Milner
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and the space he is vacating. Another element of Jota’s game that is exciting for managers is his relentless pursuit of space.

Firmino plays the ball to Salah who quickly plays it to TAA, who is located in the same space Salah has been forced to play in this season.
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The added attacking threat has allowed TAA to be at the corner of the box more.
Jota takes Milner’s spot and he recognizes that Chambers’ attention on Mane could present an opportunity.
TAA turns quickly and whips a ball over Holding who had already begun stepping forward.
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Simultaneously, Jota sees what is coming and he angles his run slightly away from the ball. This slight step away will allow him to run towards the ball the moment he heads it, and it is a rocket off his head into the back of the net.
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This next image shows the moment leading up to Salah’s goal. Salah drives towards Leno and sneaks the shot through his legs, but I think he gets a little lucky. In this play again, however,we see Jota recognizing space early, and sliding in and through defenders’ blind spots.
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His awareness for space is on another level.

This one is my favorite. Arsenal irresponsibly try to build out of the beck when being pressured rather than dump it into the space near midfield, bypassing the line of pressure.
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As soon as TAA takes the ball from Soares, Jota sees Holding slide towards the penalty spot and then he takes a quick look at Chambers. Noticing he has a head start and the inside track on Chambers, Jota darts towards the box.
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The green box represents the space Jota anticipated would be there in the previous frame. Mo plays the ball to Mane, as Jota is crashing into the box from the other side.

Jota arrives at his targeted space just as the ball does and he fires a canon into the back of the net.
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I love how early Jota recognized this play, and how he timed his run perfectly (he does not run at a constant speed to get there). Form = heightened awareness.

There is no doubt Jota should be a top consideration for managers to bring into their sides.
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Add his role in the pressing game to how indispensable he is in attack, and I can only think he must be nailed in Klopp’s side as long as he’s healthy.

The other side of the above coin is, of course, whether the players being sold for Jota deserve to be sold.
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While they each have their risk (rotation, fixtures), I wanted to look at their role in the team and ability to determine if they present good value despite their risk.

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GUNDOGAN vs SOU GW27
Gundo is a true 8. Picks the ball up deep, helps link/progress the play, helps disrupt opposing attacks, and, of course, makes late runs into the box. I selected to look at the SOU match because KDB played in it, and it is not a matchup that should suit a
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player like Gundo as late runs into the box are more effective against deep blocks.
The first image illustrates the above point well. Gundo’s late run does not have time to materialize because Mahrez takes a very nice, quick shot for his goal.
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I love this next play. Gundo begins the play from his customary deep position, but I love how MCI play between opposing lines.

Walker’s quick outlet pass to Mahrez gets knocked first time to KDB, who will again play Mahrez. Walker playing the ball wide created the time for
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Gundo to arrive at the box. The advantage of the late run is that defenders already have their assignments, and their attention is on the ball. Gundo picks a lane with Jota-like expertise.
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Gundo remains in good space with a clear lane in front of him. Mahrez shoots with his right foot and the ball comes off the post…

And bounces right in Gundo’s lane for an easy tap in.

Opportunities for deep-lying runs arise in every match. Gundo may not always be on the
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end of them & runs from deep are more easily ignored or missed, but his role with the team in general is quite constant. He is more advanced when KDB is out, but he continues to make those dangerous runs even when KDB plays. Unless his start % changes, he remains great value.
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RAPHINHA vs CHE GW28
Raphinha might be my favorite player in the league right now, so I am certainly coming at this analysis with a positive bias. I hope the following examples will justify that bias. Spoiler alert: do not sell Raphinha.
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I chose to highlight the Chelsea match because they were, and still are imo, the team in the best defensive form. If Raphinha can show us something against the best surely, he’s worth keeping through fixtures that are better than this example.
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The first sequence shows how dangerous Raph is, and how dangerous he is perceived to be. We see this situation multiple times each game, where Raph is confronted by a defender in a deep area, with some space wide.
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He has the ability to cut inside, bolt up the line, or play a ball into the spaces highlighted in green.
Notice how the eyes of all 4 players on that back line are transfixed on the dynamic playmaker from Porto Alegre.
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Sure enough, Raphinha finds Bamford making a good run behind the defense. Unfortunately, he was offside so the tap in goal to Harrison did not stand.

This next play really impressed me. I did not notice this when I watched this match, but upon review I have to hand it to
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Raphinha for holding (lol) off Azpi here. Azpi is a dog of a defender that nips at you with his arms and legs. He’s strong and feisty. Raphinha holds him off with a good low center of gravity.

Raphinha is able to turn and force a good save out of Mendy.
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We have now seen Raphinha as a deep creator from a wide area, and as a strong target holding off the most nailed defender on the team w/ the best defense in the league.
Then final piece of Raphinha’s arsenal that’d I’d like to highlight is his ability to get behind defenders
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and pick out a pass. In this sequence Raph plays a neat one-two with Roberts. As soon as Roberts plays him through, Raphinha knows who his best option is. This quick recognition shows his level of game awareness. I see this guy in a different white uniform soon. HALA.
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If there is a thread that links all of these players, I would say that it is awareness. These guys live in a Matrix-like heightened state of reality almost all the time. You know that feeling where you see everything 3 steps ahead and life seems to be moving in slow motion
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because your brain is processing information so efficiently? That moment when strike a ball so perfectly that the whole world seems to suddenly make sense for a fraction of a moment? Jota, Gundo, and Raphinha live there. They are Neo.
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The Little Prince Pick of the Week – Timothy Castagne
Last week I wrote a scouting report on Iheanacho and while doing the research I came across a player whose form I had not noticed previously. Castagne has been a creative cog for this team for the past several weeks,
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playing deep lying through balls to Iheanacho. He faces West Ham who will be shaky after losing Declan Rice. To add, no team has conceded more chances from their right side in the last 6 matches than WHU. I think Castagne could be a very interesting way into the LEI back line
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But the Little Prince is only about a feeling in my chest based on watching the matches.
“What moves me so deeply about this sleeping little prince is his loyalty to a flower – the image of a rose shining within him like the flame within a lamp, even when he’s asleep.”
Thank you all for your spending a slice of your life with my futbol thoughts. There is a short turnaround w/ the short week so please do help me share my work w/ a larger audience.
You can follow @FPLLens.
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