Thread: Understanding the opportunistic tripartite relations between Ethiopia Eritrea and Somalia

Out of the three leaders only Afwerki has domestic stability and has manoeuvred the other two by appealing to their personal ambitions and domestic needs

Especially Abiye, who he has charmed, by supporting his plans to subdue domestic opponents and dreams of a HOA confederacy

One must only look at Abiye's destructive war in Tigray to realise how much Afwerki has taken advantage of the desperate domestic situation faced by his peers.

A war that wouldn't have happened without Afwerki's support. Ethiopia is today teetering towards state collapse.

Abiye's delusion's for power has blinded him to the reality that Afwerki see's a strong Central Ethiopia as much a threat as TPLF.

Afwerki's support can be likened to that of a man who gives fuel to his desperate foe, who's house is on fire.

Similarly in Somalia, Afwerki has empowered president Farmaajo and encouraged him to follow suit in preventing elections and ending federalism.

The situation is now fluid and uncertain, with talks of a possible extension, that may plunge the country into civil war

Farmaajo also fails to comprehend that Abiye's support is not infinite and once he stabilises Ethiopia may return the old imperial ambitions of annexing Somali coast

On more than one occasion Ethiopia's foreign ministry has released maps that lays claim's to Somalia's territory.

Eritrea on the other hand wants to extend its influence and establish itself as a regional power broker amongst failed states.
Increasing its reach inside Ethiopia while increasing its importance in the region and to the world.