Thread by @FplOsama, Gameweek 31 Analysis Hello everyone and welcome to my FPL thread [...]

Gameweek 31 Analysis

Hello everyone and welcome to my FPL thread for GW31

#FPL #FPLCommunity

Fixtures to target

Man City vs Leeds

66 Goals for Sky Blues aganist 47 for the Peacocks is a proof for a Goal-Fest fixture. On the other hand, Leeds are bottom for xG conceded encourage FPL managers to consider more attacking assets from Man City side

Sheffield Utd vs Arsenal

No way to ignore a fixture includes the 3rd worst defence and worst attacking team this year. Expecting a strong reaction from the gunners after their last defeat against Liverpool

Discussion & Comparisons

Must-Have players regardless of owning the WC chip

The majority of FPL managers are ready to trigger their 2nd WC this week. So in this section i will try to figure out a General strategy for both wild and non wildcarders

The 1st question must be raised is : If i have a WC chip then how should my team be like ?

There is no optimal answer here as it depends on everyone mindset, however i tried to construct 2 Templates that include players with the best upcoming fixtures

Template 1

vs Template 2

Recalling Liverpool Final Stretch

With no doubt, Liverpool have the easiest run of fixtures till the end of the season which can hardly be ignored

Fabinho's return to the midfield enabled others to improve. Trent Alexander-Arnold, better protected by his midfield. Mane, Salah and Diogo Jota meanwhile benefited hugely from Liverpool’s ability to play forward quickly

Lets have a quick look on TAA numbers (Last 6 matches)

xA : 1.85 " 1st "
xGi : 2.15 " 1st "
Penalty Touches : 15 " 5th "
Mins per Chances created : 29" 1st"

Salah vs Jota vs Mane ( Last 6 matches ) :

Mins played : 512 vs 336 vs 478
Goals : 1 vs 4 vs 0
Assists : 0 vs 0 vs 2
xG : 2.34 vs 1.13 vs 1.49
Penalty Area Touches : 39 vs 16 vs 37
Goal attempts (box) : 16(11)vs 7(6) vs 13(11)
Big Chances scored : 1 vs 2 vs 0

Conclusion

:

Despite the mins played for Jota the least among the trio, however his numbers are edging. If you have the budget to afford the trio : TAA - Salah & Jota then it will be iconic for the rest of the season . Phillips (£4.0) is nailed in the reds defence as well

Man City Rotation Dilemma

Recalling, Pep Guardiolla and his men have 7 matches in all competitions during April as shown below

:

Man City Rotation Dilemma Recalling, Pep Guardiolla and his men have 7 matches in all competitions during April as shown below :

Pep confirmed after the win over Leicester that there'd be fresh legs for the Leeds game. Lets have a quick look on the mins played for the top defence and attacking MCI assets the last 2 matches in all competitions

I believe that KDB-Walker-Rodri-Foden & Dias are the top players with high rotation percentage aganist Leeds .

KDB -imo- is most likely to be rested aganist "Intense" leeds as the 2nd UCL leg will enforce Guardiolla to go for Signal Iduna Park with very fresh legs

Conclusion

:

I will challenge Pep's Mind and will predict Man City XI aganist Leeds

:

Ederson - Cancelo - Laporte - Stones - Mendy/Zinchenko - Fernandino - Gundogan - Sterling - Torres/Bernardo - Jesus - Aguero

Time to consider Arsenal assets ?

Per the Fixture Ticker, Arsenal are ranked the 3rd best team for the easiest run of fixtures for the final stretch of the season

Lets Have a quick look on the team numbers [ GW20 - GW30 ]

Defensive Stats

- Cleansheets : 1 " Worst with SHU & SOU"
- Goals Conceded : 16
- xGC: 14.61
- Mins per xGC : 72.1
- Mins per xGC on target : 61.9 " 3rd worst"
- Errors Leading to Goal : 4 " 2nd Worst "

Attacking Stats

- Goals Scored : 17 " 5th Best "
- Mins per xG : 68.1 " 6th Best "
- Shots on target : 36 " 4th Worst "
- Big Chances : 17 " 3rd Worst "
- Attempts inside the box : 78 " 6th worst "

Conclusion

:

Although the stats are not really encouraging to rely on arsenal assets, however, four of their next five are aganist the worst attacking and defending teams in the entire season [ shu- FUL - EVE - new - WBA ] cannot be ignored

Leno + Lacazette are nailed for me

Wolves assets for the wildcard ?

Wolves kept only 4 cleansheets conceeding 12 goals " 4th best " during GW20-GW30 all of them have something in common which is the 3-4-3 formation. Although they have played 3-4-3 during this period and conceeded as well ...

excluding [ Arsenal - Man city & Liverpool ] , Wolves looked more solid with 3 in the back line .

Wolves defence also conceded 97 goal attempts inside the box " 6th worse "

I will cover Pedro Neto stats as he is the wolves talisman [ GW20-GW30]

Goals/Assists : 1/3
xG non penalty : 2.58
xA : 2.20
Goal attempts (Box) : 26(15) " 3rd best "
Chances Created (BIG) : 24(5)

Conclusion

:

Similar to Arsenal, the only factor that we can rely one to give wolves assets a chance is the next run of fixtures [ ful-SHU-BUR-wba-BHA ]

Coady + Neto is enough for me

Captaincy

Before we get into the best captaincy options for this GW, we have to mention that in normal conditions , KDB should be the obvious captain for this week. However, He is conceivably to be rested aganist LEE rathan than UCL second leg aganist Dortmund

Stats & Performance Over the last 6 Gameweeks

Raheem Sterling

- Time played : 297 mins ( Starts 3 )
- 1 goal, 1 assist
- 1.79 xG (non-pen), 0.56 xA
- 10 Goal attempts ( 8 in box)
-5 big chances ( Scored 1 )
- 4 Chances Created
- Touch // Shot heatmaps :

Stats & Performance Over the last 6 Gameweeks Raheem Sterling- Time played : 297 mins ( Starts 3 )- 1 goal, 1 assist- 1.79 xG (non-pen), 0.56 xA- 10 Goal attempts ( 8 in box)-5 big chances ( Scored 1 )- 4 Chances Created- Touch // Shot heatmaps :

GW Opponent : Leeds United

- Goals Conceded : 6
- Clean sheets : 2
- xG Conceeded : 7.75
- Shots in the box conceded: 50
- Shots on target conceded : 34
- Big Chances Conceded : 9
- Goal attempts conceded heatmap :

GW Opponent : Leeds United - Goals Conceded : 6- Clean sheets : 2- xG Conceeded : 7.75- Shots in the box conceded: 50- Shots on target conceded : 34- Big Chances Conceded : 9- Goal attempts conceded heatmap :

Mohamed Salah

- Time played : 512 mins
- 1 goal, 0 assist
- 2.34 xG (non-pen), 0.69 xA
- 16 goal attempts (11 in the box)
- 5 big chances ( Scored 1 )
- 5 Chances Created
- Touch // Shot heatmaps :

GW Opponent : Aston Villa

- Goals Conceded : 7
- Clean sheets : 2
- xG Conceeded : 8.77
- Shots in the box conceded: 49
- Shots on target conceded : 27
- Big Chances Conceded : 11
- Goal attempts conceded heatmap :

GW Opponent : Aston Villa - Goals Conceded : 7- Clean sheets : 2- xG Conceeded : 8.77- Shots in the box conceded: 49- Shots on target conceded : 27- Big Chances Conceded : 11- Goal attempts conceded heatmap :

Harry Kane

- Time played : 620 mins
- 6 goals , 2 assists
- 5.36 xG (non-pen), 1.28 xA
- 33 goal attempts ( 19 in the box)
- 8 big chances ( Scored 4 )
- 7 Chances Created
- Touch // Shot heatmaps :

GW Opponent : Manchester United

- Goals Conceded : 2
- Clean sheets : 4
- xG Conceeded : 5.41
- Shots in the box conceded: 40
- Shots on target conceded : 23
- Big Chances Conceded : 6
- Goal attempts conceded heatmap :

GW Opponent : Manchester United - Goals Conceded : 2- Clean sheets : 4- xG Conceeded : 5.41- Shots in the box conceded: 40- Shots on target conceded : 23- Big Chances Conceded : 6- Goal attempts conceded heatmap :

Differential Captaincy

Stats & Performance Over the last 6 Gameweeks

Aubameyang

11.4 - SHU (A) - TSB: 9.1%

Time played : 344 mins
1 goal , 0 assists
0.85 xG (non-pen), 0.3 xA
5 goal attempts ( 4 in the box)
1 big chance

Sergio Agüero :

10.3 - LEE(H) - TSB : 1.3%

Time played : 232 mins
1 goal , 0 assists
0.21 xG (non-pen), 0.08 xA
5 goal attempts ( 5 in the box)
1 big chance ( Scored 1 )

Differential Picks