Recent history suggests that how it starts in the MLB season is often how it's going to be going at the end (a mini thread ... ) https://www.thescore.com/mlb/news/2148751/what-the-first-week-can-tell-us-about-the-rest-of-the-mlb-season

There are still going to be a lot of home runs per fly ball in '21. First-week HR/FB ratios often tell us a lot about what the season HR environment will be. This year's HR/FB of 13.4% is the highest of any season that started in March or April in Statcast era.

But isn't the ball less lively? Barreled (barrelled?) balls are traveling 383 feet compared to 390 ft. last year (yoy comp via HawkEye camera tracking) But there have been a lot more barreled balls, nearly double week 1 rate of 2015. (And week 1 exit velo is sticky).

As others have noted, the ball has more drag as was intended but is perhaps also be bouncier off the bat. Moreover, hitters are also increasingly skill levels just as pitchers are. All in all, balls off the bat are being crushed more than in past years. ...

Perhaps MLB/Rawlings tried to create a ball that would produce fewer HRs but more singles and doubles after last year's BABIP decline. But we haven't seen a marked HR/FB decline after one week which usually tells us where we're headed ...

MLB also wants to reduce strikeouts. Well, that's not working. Strikeout rate stands at 25.3% after one week, which is a record and biggest yoy week 1 jump since 2016. We're looking at a season in which Ks might be a quarter of PAs. ...

Strikeouts are up, I'd wager, mostly because spin keeps increasing ... and spin adjusted for velocity. That means pitchers, thus far, are ignoring MLB's memo about sticky stuff. We'll have to see if MLB has the resolve to enforce rule.Many pitchers use sticky stuff. 4-seam spin:

If recent history is a reliable guide, we're headed for a season of record strikeouts (again), and more homer-dependent run production. The ball is different but skills keep improving, too. It all leads to more questions about what, if anything, ought to be done. [end thread]